The Trump administration was presented with a fait accompli just before scheduled American-Iranian negotiations in Oman by the Israeli Air Force’s extensive military attacks against Iranian targets in the early hours of June 13. On Friday morning, Israel launched an unprecedented attack on Iran’s nuclear, missile, and military complex, which resulted in the deaths of three of the country’s most influential figures. The objective of the diplomatic negotiations was to resolve regional conflicts and address apprehensions regarding Tehran’s nuclear program.
The first wave of Israeli attacks was directed at the decapitation of Iran’s military leadership structure. According to Iranian state media, the attacks resulted in the deaths of Hossein Salami, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC); Major General Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces; and nuclear scientists Fereydoon Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi. IRGC Staff Commander General Golam-Ali Rashid, Air Force Commander Aziz Nasir-Zadeh, and numerous other generals are also reported to have been slain.
General staff facilities, military residential areas, and the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were the specific targets of the strikes. Dr. Tehranchi, Dr. Fereydoon Abbasi, and Dr. Abdulhamid Manouchehr were among the prominent nuclear scientists who were also eliminated, according to intelligence sources. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the IRGC’s Air Force, has passed away, marking a significant setback for Tehran. Hajizadeh was responsible for the country’s missile program, which defended its airspace and executed attacks abroad.
The second phase of Israeli operations focused on the infrastructure and weapons production facilities of Iran’s nuclear program, as well as missile launchers and air defense radar systems. The coordinated effort to severely degrade Iran’s military capabilities and nuclear development program is indicated by the comprehensive nature of these assaults.
The Regional Transport Infrastructure is at Risk
The long-term political and economic repercussions for Middle Eastern infrastructure initiatives are of great concern as a result of the escalating military conflict. The prospective impact on the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a significant transcontinental trade route that connects the Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga to Iran’s Bandar Abbas and India’s Mumbai, is of particular importance.
The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is a 7,200-km (4,500-mile) multi-modal network of ship, rail, and road routes that facilitate the transportation of freight between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia, and Europe. The corridor has become increasingly significant in terms of its strategic significance as Russia pursues alternative trade routes in response to Western sanctions.
Caucasus Investment Forum Emphasizes Strategic Significance
The North-South Transport Corridor’s increasing importance was underscored at the most recent Caucasus Investment Forum in Mineralnye Vody, which was jointly organized by the Roscongress Foundation and Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development. The participants concluded that the route from Ust-Luga to Bandar Abbas and Mumbai is becoming a focal point for political and economic integration for an increasing number of Eurasian countries.
Forum discussions demonstrated that the international significance of the North-South corridor is increasing annually as a result of Russia’s foreign economic policy pivot toward Asian countries. The corridor is expected to accommodate up to 32 million tons of cargo annually by 2030, which is a more than 50% increase from the current volumes.
Dmitry Volvach, the Deputy Minister of Economic Development, acknowledged the ongoing endeavors to connect the corridor with the Trans-Afghan railway route to Pakistan and India, as well as with the interstate transport-economic initiative “Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Turkmenistan” that was established in 2023.
Dagestan’s Strategic Role
The corridor section that passes through Dagestan has obtained a unique significance in the context of the evolving global trade routes. Dagestani logistics centers and Iranian Caspian ports, such as Enzeli, Amirabad, and Caspian, are expected to engage in active interaction through Makhachkala’s potential to become one of the largest logistics sites. Regular ferry cargo services between Makhachkala and Iranian Caspian ports, as well as connections to Turkmenbashi port on the eastern Caspian shore, are included in the plans.
Additional transport branches in the region are intended to enhance connectivity with neighboring states, thereby bolstering the North Caucasus region’s position within the transport corridor framework and fostering the development of external economic relations. The 170-kilometer Budyonnovsk-Neftekumsk-Artezian route in the northeastern Stavropol region is a critical planned railway section. This route offers the shortest connection to the Caspian railway line, which runs from Astrakhan to Makhachkala, Baku, Lankran, and Astrakhan in northwest Iran.
Progress in Infrastructure Development
Major restorations and reconstruction of narrow road sections in the Dagestan and Astrakhan regions, as well as bypass construction, were among the significant logistics projects that were highlighted at the forum. Two new overpasses were constructed on the R-22 “Caspiy” highway in April 2025, which is a component of the corridor’s road network. The construction of a new terminal and infrastructure reconstruction at Makhachkala port are ongoing. Meanwhile, the Olya Port special economic zone, located southwest of Astrakhan, is undergoing port infrastructure development with the involvement of Iranian investors.
In 2025, the capacity of the Russia-Azerbaijan border crossing at Tagirkent-Kazmalar has nearly tripled, and the parallel railway crossing capacity has also increased. Construction of the new “Samur-II” freight railway station near the Russian-Azerbaijan border is expected to be completed by mid-2026, resulting in a minimum of one-third of the cross-border capacity being increased to 15 million tons annually.
The Integration of Belarus and Agricultural Exports
Belarus has recently commenced exporting goods through the corridor that passes through Makhachkala. Makhachkala Commercial Sea Port has been responsible for transporting Belarusian potassium fertilizer to Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Pakistan, India, and Sri Lanka via Iran since mid-November 2024. Belarus is one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of this type of fertilizer.
Jamal Aliev, the General Director of Makhachkala port, announced that the port is planning to dispatch more than 200,000 tons of this product in 2025. Additionally, container transportation from India will commence through Iranian ports and Makhachkala ports. A session on the “Eurasian Agro-Express” integration project will be held at the upcoming IV Eurasian Economic Forum in Minsk on June 26-27. The project is designed to facilitate the export of agricultural and food products from EAEU member states to China, as well as via the North-South corridor to Turkmenistan, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and India.
Plans for Cross-Border Expansion
The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is a multimodal transportation network that connects India and the Persian Gulf to Russia and Northern Europe, serving as one of the primary trade routes between Iran and Russia. During a government session in the Federation Council on April 17, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk clarified that the corridor’s cross-border operational expansion involves the establishment of overland transit connections with Pakistan through both Iran and Afghanistan via Turkmenistan routes.
A program to modernize and technically re-equip international cargo crossing points has been in place by the Russian government since 2020. According to Overchuk, the capacity at the borders with Georgia has already increased by 200%, Azerbaijan by 500%, Kazakhstan by 110%, Mongolia by 240%, and China by 190%. Stable transit cargo volumes along the North-South corridor route are established through agreements with Baku. The first phase involves 5 million tons, while the second phase involves 15 million tons.
Infrastructure Projects for Railways
In late May, VTB’s project office introduced a steel highway project spanning approximately 50 kilometers, which provides an additional connection between the Russian, Azerbaijani, and Iranian railway networks. This project is intended to facilitate the comprehensive development of the railway network.
Concurrently, Russia and Iran initiated survey work for the long-debated Rasht-Astara line construction. Russia and Iran executed an agreement on May 17, 2023, to construct the 162-kilometer Rasht-Astara railroad in collaboration. This railroad will link the overland portions of the North-South international transportation corridor and enhance the economic efficiency of the trans-Caspian route. The first land sections for surveys were ceremonially handed over in Gilan province on May 15, with Russian construction companies overseeing the project.
The “Russia-Islamic World” forum in Kazan featured a comprehensive presentation of the Rasht-Astara line project. The construction of 8 new stations, 56 overpasses, 73 bridges, 30 overpasses, 733 drainage structures, and other infrastructure is planned for the 162-kilometer section with a 1435mm gauge width on a combined foundation, which allows for the implementation of a 1520mm gauge. The project is expected to be completed by the late 2020s, and VTB is proposing to execute a heads-of-state decision on the commencement of construction and establish an investment consortium. It is anticipated that the extensive overseas construction project, which will involve Russian Railways and other companies, will result in the employment of up to 40,000 individuals, the use of 100,000 tons of metal structures, and the production of 40 million cubic meters of concrete. The total rail installation will span 6,500 kilometers.
Economic Viability Issues
Economic viability continues to be a critical concern, despite the ambitious construction plans. Deputy Prime Minister Saveliev underscored that, in the absence of acceptable tariff policies for businesses, infrastructure construction alone is insufficient. The fundamental topic of return cargo loads must be resolved in order to ensure the sustainable operation of a corridor. Overchuk commended Baku for its efforts to reduce railway tariffs, noting that Azerbaijan has already decided to reduce tariffs for return cargo.
Strategic Consequences
The International North-South Transport Corridor will contribute to the establishment of a comprehensive system of transport-economic and political-economic interconnections within Greater Eurasia if it is completely implemented. Nevertheless, the timeline and viability of these ambitious regional connectivity projects could be considerably impacted by the recent escalation in Israeli-Iranian tensions and the targeting of Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure.
According to Kazem Jalali, the Iranian Ambassador to Russia, between 1.8 million and 2 million tons of cargo were transported along the eastern branch of the North-South international transport corridor in 2024. This corridor connects Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to Iran. The corridor’s ongoing development will be significantly influenced by the resolution of ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and regional stability.
The recent Israeli strikes, which were unprecedented in their targeting of senior Iranian leadership, represent a substantial escalation that could have long-term repercussions for regional infrastructure projects and economic integration efforts throughout Eurasia.