Manipur enters the closing months of 2026 with a security situation that remains fragile and increasingly complex. While the large-scale Meitei–Kuki violence that began in May 2023 has not returned to its earlier intensity, fresh clashes between Naga and Kuki communities in the hill districts have exposed a new and dangerous fault line. The state government’s emphasis on peace, infrastructure, and administrative normalisation is important, but it has not yet addressed the deeper crisis of displacement, distrust, and armed violence.
A Renewed Wave of Violence
The most alarming recent development has been the outbreak of violence in the Kamjong, Kangpokpi, and Ukhrul districts in early October. At least nine people were killed over two days, with incidents reported in Chassad, Ningchou, Tapon, Makui, and near Chepu Yaolen. The violence began after the killing of a young woman in Chassad, a village where Kuki and Naga communities live in adjoining areas.
The killing triggered retaliatory firing, arson and further deaths. Houses were torched, civilians were targeted, and prohibitory orders were imposed in affected areas. In Kangpokpi, village guards and residents were killed in attacks on Tapon and Makui villages. In Kamjong, suspected militants allegedly entered Ningchou, a Tangkhul Naga settlement near the Myanmar border, opened fire, and fled towards Myanmar. Another civilian was killed in Ukhrul when suspected militants fired at a vehicle.
These incidents show that violence is no longer confined to the earlier Meitei–Kuki divide. The emergence of Naga–Kuki tensions in the hill districts adds a new layer of insecurity to an already fractured state.
The Shifting Geography of Conflict
Manipur’s conflict began in May 2023 as a confrontation largely between the Meitei community in the Imphal Valley and Kuki-Zo communities in the surrounding hills. That conflict produced mass displacement, destruction of homes and places of worship, and the near-total separation of communities across valley and hill areas.
By 2026, however, the pattern of violence has become more complicated. Large-scale valley-hill confrontations have reduced, but localised violence has continued. The recent clashes in Kamjong, Kangpokpi, and Ukhrul indicate that competition over territory, political influence, armed-group activity and access to border routes may now be driving conflict in new directions.
This shift is particularly serious because the hill districts are geographically vulnerable. They lie close to the Myanmar border, where smuggling routes, insurgent networks, and cross-border movement have long complicated security. The discovery of 27 improvised explosive devices along an eight-kilometre stretch in Kamjong district underlines the scale of the threat. Their neutralisation by the Army and Assam Rifles prevented a potential major tragedy, but it also revealed how deeply armed violence has penetrated parts of the state.
Security Operations Intensify
In response to the renewed violence, security forces have intensified counter-insurgency and area-domination operations. Security forces have deployed additional personnel in Kangpokpi and Kamjong, the two districts most affected by the October clashes. Security agencies have also carried out operations leading to seizures of arms, ammunition, communication equipment, and suspected narcotics, along with the arrest of alleged insurgent operatives.
These operations are necessary to prevent further attacks and dismantle armed networks. Yet security alone cannot resolve Manipur’s crisis. Every arrest, seizure, or deployment may reduce an immediate threat. Still, it does not remove the political and social grievances that allow armed groups to recruit, operate, and find local support.
The continued presence of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, or AFSPA, in large parts of Manipur also remains a sensitive issue. While the law is intended to support security forces operating in disturbed areas, its prolonged application has often raised concerns about accountability, civilian rights, and trust between communities and the state. Any durable peace strategy will need to balance operational security with protections for civilians and a credible path towards political dialogue.
The Human Cost Remains Enormous
The human cost of Manipur’s conflict remains severe. The state government informed the Assembly that more than 300 people have been killed and 49 remain missing since violence began in May 2023. Tens of thousands of people continue to live with the consequences of displacement, loss of livelihood, damaged homes, and disrupted access to education and healthcare.
For displaced families, the conflict has not ended simply because the most intense phase of violence has passed. Many remain in relief camps, temporary shelters or with relatives, uncertain about when—or whether—they can safely return home. Others have returned to areas that remain insecure, poorly serviced, or socially divided.
The impact on children has been especially damaging. School closures, interrupted learning, trauma, and uncertainty have affected thousands of students. Young people who have grown up amid violence, checkpoints, rumours, and fear face a future shaped by lost education, limited opportunity,, and deep psychological stress.
Women, elderly people, and persons with disabilities have also faced particular risks. Displacement has disrupted family incomes, access to healthcare, and social support networks. In many cases, women have become primary caregivers while also carrying the burden of rebuilding households after loss and destruction.
Livelihoods Under Pressure
The conflict’s economic consequences are visible across Manipur. Farmers, traders, transport operators, and daily-wage workers have suffered from road blockages, insecurity and disrupted supply chains. Movement between districts has become difficult in certain areas, affecting the delivery of essential goods and access to markets.
The state’s connectivity projects, including improvements to National Highways 37 and 2, are therefore not merely infrastructure initiatives. They are essential to restoring trade, mobility, and access to services. Better roads can help connect remote hill areas with Imphal and other economic centres, but their benefits will be limited unless travellers, traders, and residents feel safe using them.
Reconstruction must also go beyond roads. Homes, schools, health centres, markets, and community institutions need rebuilding. Employment programmes, credit support and livelihood restoration will be essential for families that have lost businesses, land access or sources of income.
Governance After Instability
Manipur’s political situation has also changed significantly. The resignation of the previous government and the imposition of President’s Rule in February 2025 reflected the crisis’s severity. The revocation of President’s Rule and the formation of a new government under Chief Minister Yumnam Khemchand Singh in February 2026 restored elected governance, but it did not automatically restore peace.
The new government has repeatedly appealed for restraint, unity and dialogue. It has also focused on administrative appointments and strengthening local governance. These steps matter, especially in districts where conflict and displacement have weakened local institutions.
However, governance cannot succeed if communities see the state as partial or absent. Restoring confidence will require visible, impartial action: prompt investigation of killings, protection for vulnerable villages, fair relief distribution, credible rehabilitation, and meaningful consultation with affected communities.
The Challenge of Reconciliation
The deepest challenge in Manipur is not only security but also reconciliation. Years of violence have hardened community boundaries. Neighbourhoods that once interacted daily have become polarised, and many people now live in areas dominated by a single community.
Reconciliation cannot be achieved through slogans alone. It requires sustained dialogue between community leaders, civil-society organisations, women’s groups, youth organisations and religious institutions. It also requires practical measures: safe return of displaced families, protection of places of worship, compensation for losses, restoration of public services, and accountability for crimes.
Trust will return only when people believe that the state can protect them regardless of ethnicity. That means impartial policing, transparent investigations, fair access to relief and development, and a political process that gives all communities a voice.
What Must Happen Next
Manipur needs a comprehensive peace and recovery strategy built on several priorities.
- Immediate de-escalation in Kamjong, Kangpokpi, and Ukhrul, with protection for civilians and strict action against armed groups.
- Secure and monitored return or resettlement for displaced families, based on safety assessments rather than pressure or deadlines.
- Faster reconstruction of homes, schools, health facilities, and community infrastructure.
- Livelihood support for farmers, traders, women-led enterprises, and daily-wage workers.
- Expanded mental health and psychosocial services, especially for children and trauma-affected families.
- Transparent investigations into killings, arson, and disappearances.
- Sustained dialogue among Meitei, Kuki-Zo, Naga, and other communities, with credible mediators and protections for participants.
- A clear long-term political framework that addresses land, identity, representation, development, and security concerns.
A State at a Crossroads
Manipur stands at a crossroads. The recent violence in the hill districts shows that the state cannot afford complacency. The shift towards Naga–Kuki tensions demonstrates that the conflict has become more layered, not less dangerous. Armed groups, cross-border pressures, territorial competition, and community distrust continue to create conditions in which local incidents can rapidly escalate.
At the same time, the reduction in large-scale valley–hill confrontations offers a limited opportunity. The government, security forces, and civil society must use this space to prevent another cycle of violence. Peace in Manipur will not be restored by force alone. It will require security, justice, development, and dialogue moving together.
Until displaced families can return safely, children can return to school without fear, and communities can trust one another again, Manipur’s peace will remain fragile. The state’s future depends not merely on controlling violence but on rebuilding the social fabric that violence has torn apart.