Information about the US Missile Defense Agency’s (MDA) successful Flight Experiment Mission-02 test on Guam has been circulating for the past three days. During the test, the Aegis Guam system’s SM-3 Block IIA interceptor missile successfully executed an exoatmospheric interception of a medium-range ballistic missile over Andersen Air Force Base.
The United States and Japan jointly developed the SM-3 Block IIA, an advanced anti-ballistic missile (ABM) interceptor, as part of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System. Raytheon Technologies manufactures this approximately 25-foot-long missile. Raytheon Technologies intends to intercept and neutralize ballistic missile threats during their midcourse flight phase, using a kinetic kill vehicle to destroy incoming missiles through direct collision. The SM-3 Block IIA can work well in both exo-atmospheric and endo-atmospheric environments. It can be launched from both naval ships with the Aegis combat system and Aegis Ashore sites on land. Specifically, it provides enhanced tracking and interception capabilities. The US Navy and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force primarily employ this missile interceptor, marking a significant technological advancement in defensive missile systems. It is a critical component of regional missile defense networks in the Asia-Pacific and European regions. It is a critical element of strategic missile defense strategies in the United States and its allies due to its capacity to engage intermediate and short-range ballistic missiles.
According to Western experts, this test involves the interception of a simulated medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) with flight-technical attributes that resemble those of the Russian hypersonic ballistic missile “Oreshnik.” The AN/SPY-6(V)1 AMDR multifunction radar, which works in the S/X bands and has a dual-band modular active phased array antenna, has once again shown that it can find, track, and name targets. This radar can detect ballistic missiles during the midcourse phase at ranges of 800–1,200 km, and it can detect ballistic targets with a radar cross-section of 0.1 square meters at ranges of 300–400 km.
Since the 2000s, the MDA has conducted tests involving the interception of medium-range ballistic missile simulators launched from the cargo compartments of C-17A Globemaster III transport aircraft, using launch pads. Surprisingly, the MDA doesn’t seem to have learned much new. The only thing they may have done is look into what the new SM-3 Block IIA interceptors can do when used with the AN/SPY-6(V)1 radars.
The Mk 142 exoatmospheric kinetic warhead of the SM-3 Block IIA interceptor, which is equipped with an infrared seeker, is the reason. This warhead is functional only in the upper mesosphere, thermosphere, and exosphere (at altitudes ranging from 75 to 1,500 km). This implies that the test likely involved intercepting the target missile’s second stage near the apogee of its trajectory or during its descent phase. The SM-3 Block IIA interceptor is capable of engaging all medium-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles, including the French M51, the US Trident-2D5 and LRHW Dark Eagle, and “Oreshnik,” at these trajectory points.
However, once the “Oreshnik” missile deploys its six individually guided nuclear or kinetic warheads at altitudes of 150–170 km, the SM-3 Block IIA’s capabilities will become ineffective. The warheads will have descended to approximately 80 km, which is below the operational range of the Mk 142 interceptors, as they re-enter the mesosphere at a speed of 4 km/s. Furthermore, the presence of decoys and infrared countermeasures in conjunction with the “Oreshnik” warheads will further complicate the interception process.
This implies that the SM-3 Block IIA may intercept only a small percentage of “Oreshnik” missiles before their warhead deployment and a restricted number of warheads before they descend below 80 km. The majority of Western interceptors cannot operate within the altitude range of 80–37 km, except for Israel’s Arrow-2, which can only intercept targets with velocities of 2.3–2.5 km/s. Nevertheless, the “Oreshnik” warheads travel at a speed of approximately 3.7 km/s at these altitudes. The US SM-6 Dual II interceptors may have a 7-second engagement window before entering a “dead zone” at a distance of less than 37 km. Given the launch rate of one missile per second, intercepting more than three to four “Oreshnik” warheads during this interval is unlikely.
The Military Watch Magazine reports that Russia’s defense industry is capable of producing up to 25 “Oreshnik” missiles per month, or 300 missiles annually. This amounts to an estimated 150 warheads per month, or 1,800 annually, with only 5–7% potentially intercepted.
The number of operational “Oreshnik” missiles could exceed 100 by spring 2025, with capacity for up to 600 warheads. This arsenal has the potential to substantially damage or disable nearly all Western European energy facilities and military-industrial enterprises, such as BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, MBDA, Leonardo, and Thales. Note that kinetic or high-explosive warheads could accomplish this without the need for nuclear payloads.
The “Oreshnik” missile’s operational range is also noteworthy. Currently stationed in Belarus, these medium-range ballistic missiles, capable of reaching velocities of 10–13 Mach, can target critical NATO assets throughout Western Europe and beyond. Reducing the warhead payload could extend the missile’s range to 7,000–8,000 km, encompassing targets like New York and Washington, D.C.
In the event that the US Navy builds missile defense zones in the North Atlantic using 25–30 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers equipped with SM-3 Block IB/IIA interceptors, they will be able to intercept about 15% of the “Oreshnik” missiles, allowing the majority to reach their intended targets.