The US Air Force is facing a critical juncture in developing the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter, as evidenced by recent statements from Air Force Chief Frank Kendall. Amidst the ongoing revolution in aerial combat, Kendall expressed confidence on July 20, 2024, that the next-generation American fighter jet would have a pilot. In an exclusive interview with Breaking Defense on July 21, 2024, he reiterated this belief, stating that he was confident a sixth-generation fighter would emerge and that it would have a crew.
The Pilot Dilemma: Manned or Unmanned?
However, the Air Force’s stance on whether this aircraft will require a pilot and, consequently, a cockpit remains uncertain. This uncertainty suggests that the Air Force may need to reconsider even the most fundamental requirements for its NGAD fighter. Initially, the Air Force planned to award the aircraft contract in 2024. Kendall indicated that it would be reasonable to conclude that the Air Force needs to conduct a more thorough analysis of the NGAD’s design and capability requirements.
The Teal Group Perspective
Jay Gertler, an analyst from the Teal Group, interpreted Kendall’s statements as an indication that he is seriously considering all available options. Gertler noted that the Air Force’s careful review of the system design and meticulous approach to decision-making is akin to a pilot going through the final checklist before takeoff. He pointed out that considering an optionally manned design makes sense, given that any modern combat aviation system not specifically designed to be unmanned still has the option for a crew.
Remote Control and Unmanned Platforms
Gertler elaborated on the implications of modern technologies, such as networked and remote control, explaining that the operator’s physical location has become less critical. He argued that the decision to make a platform manned has a more significant impact on its design and capabilities than opting for an unmanned configuration. As a result, Gertler suggested that unmanned designs are becoming the default unless there is a specific reason to place a person on the platform.
Balancing Ambition and Affordability
Air Force officials have been signaling that the NGAD would be an expensive project for years. Kendall frequently described its cost as a multiple of the already expensive F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. However, faced with pressing modernization needs and the escalating costs of other crucial programs, officials are now openly questioning the affordability of their ambitions.
Reassessing the Five-Year Plan
Kendall acknowledged that their current five-year plan, which is now before Congress, along with their main reports from recent years, reveal unsustainable practices. He emphasized the need to address this issue, along with various affordability concerns within the five-year plan. Kendall stressed the importance of ensuring that they have the right concept for NGAD.
The Runway Factor
Another factor influencing the NGAD’s development is the infrastructure required to support fighter operations. Kendall pointed out that the infrastructure needed for F-22-class aircraft introduces certain vulnerabilities, such as the requirement for long runways. This consideration adds another layer of complexity to the NGAD’s design and operational requirements.
The Need for Flexibility
Gertler observed that, based on previous comments from officials like Kendall, some delay in the central component of the NGAD airframe not only seems likely but is already occurring. He advocated for a design approach that takes into account current realities rather than being based on the world as it was when the program was launched or on speculative projections decades into the future. Gertler argued that a procurement schedule that doesn’t allow for adaptation to changing realities would fail to create an adequate system.
NGAD: More Than Just a Fighter
Kendall emphasized that NGAD is not solely about the platform’s capabilities. It’s also about how it integrates into the promising kill web that synchronizes future unmanned aerial vehicles known as Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), space capabilities, and new-generation weapons. He stated that NGAD will need to work seamlessly with CCA in an architecture that includes space support, other off-ship support, and the most advanced weapons in the US arsenal.
Reassurances and Ongoing Questions
Speaking at the annual Life Cycle Industry Days in Dayton, Ohio, on July 30, 2024, Kendall assured listeners in his keynote speech that the NGAD will evolve in one form or another. He expressed confidence that they would still build a sixth-generation crewed aircraft. However, he also acknowledged that the Air Force is grappling with several challenging questions about the project.
The Family of Systems: NGAD and CCA
NGAD is defined as a family of systems that encompasses an aircraft formation. The centerpiece of this formation is envisioned as a crewed fighter jet capable of managing up to six collaborative combat aircraft (CCA). NGAD funds the CCA under the same budget line, demonstrating their close integration.
Budgetary Considerations and Cost Analysis
Air Force Chief of Staff General David W. Allvin, speaking at the AFA Warfighters in Action event in June 2024, described NGAD as one of many options in the budget landscape. Since then, Kendall and other service leaders have informed reporters at the Paris Air Show that the aircraft is undergoing rigorous analysis to determine if its enormous cost can be reduced. Kendall himself stated that the price per unit would be several hundred million dollars.
Technological Advancements and Program Reconciliation
Concerns exist that NGAD might be lagging behind CCA’s technological advancements and needs to catch up with its less expensive counterpart, which seems to be making significant progress. Kendall referred to the CCA program as a phased approach to deploying capability.
Contract Award and Industry Involvement
Kendall had previously stated in 2023 that he would award the NGAD contract in 2024, but his recent comments in Ohio suggest this timeline may no longer be applicable. Currently, it appears that only Lockheed Martin and Boeing are capable of offering a fully developed candidate for NGAD. Northrop Grumman has publicly stated that it will not compete for the NGAD contract. Despite this, Kendall insists on involving smaller contractors in the development and technology of new aircraft. In particular, in the case of CCA, he seems ready to distribute the work among many hands rather than rely solely on well-established prime contractors.
Upgrading NGAD: Keeping Pace with Technological Change
Kendall has stated that the goal is to frequently upgrade NGAD with new systems, weapons, and technologies. However, senior Air Force leaders are privately questioning whether this approach will be effective given the accelerating pace of technological change. Considerations suggest that upgrading NGAD at a pace similar to CCA, updating its technologies and even design every three years or so, may be necessary.
The China Factor: Adapting to New Threats
NGAD development is taking place against the backdrop of China’s rapid advancements in aerial combat technology and its ability to launch ballistic missiles at airbases. Kendall pointed out that restricting the Air Force’s operations to bases with long runways poses a significant challenge for US operations.
Navigating the Future of Air Superiority
As the Air Force continues to grapple with these complex issues surrounding the NGAD program, it’s clear that the path forward will require careful consideration of technological capabilities, strategic needs, and budgetary constraints. The decisions made in the coming months and years will have far-reaching implications for the future of US air superiority and combat capabilities in an increasingly challenging global environment.