Israel and Iran have been engaged in direct, large-scale warfare since June 13, 2025. Israel launched a comprehensive campaign of drone attacks and airstrikes against Iranian nuclear, military, and infrastructure targets, which resulted in the deaths of numerous high-ranking Iranian commanders and scientists, as well as sizable civilian casualties. In retaliation, Iran has launched a series of missiles and drones that have targeted Israeli communities, destroying critical infrastructure and causing injuries and casualties, including at an oil refinery in Haifa. The conflict remains intense, with neither party showing any signs of de-escalation. This raises the possibility of a broader regional or even global escalation.
The Strait of Hormuz’s Strategic Significance
One of the most critical maritime chokepoints in the globe is the Strait of Hormuz. It is approximately 39 km broad at its narrowest point, with shipping lanes that are only 2.5 km wide in each direction, separated by a 5 km buffer. It serves as a passageway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, and the Indian Ocean. Iran is situated to the north, while the United Arab Emirates and Oman are situated to the south.
Oil and Gas Flows: The Strait handled approximately 16.5 million barrels of crude oil and condensate per day in 2024, accounting for approximately 30% of global oil shipments. This route is also used by over one-fifth of global LNG cargoes, which are primarily sourced from Qatar.
Regional Dependence: The strait is a significant source of energy exports for the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. Although Saudi Arabia and the UAE have restricted pipeline alternatives, the majority of Gulf oil and gas exports are unable to circumvent the strait.
Iran’s Past Actions and Leverage
For many years, Iran viewed the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic pressure point. Although the strait has never been entirely closed, it has confiscated vessels on numerous occasions, occasionally in response to international actions that have targeted Iranian interests. For instance, in April 2024, Iran confiscated the MSC Aries, a container ship associated with Israel. Subsequently, in May 2022, it detained Greek tankers in response to the seizure of Iranian crude.
In the 1980s, the “Tanker War” in the Persian Gulf resulted in a spike in oil prices and insurance costs, which led to the implementation of U.S. naval escorts for tankers. Iran threatened closure in 2011 in response to sanctions; however, it ultimately refrained, partially due to the self-inflicted economic damage it would cause.
Military Feasibility of Closure
The strait is significantly influenced by Iran’s naval presence and dominion over key islands. Due to the shallow depth and limited shipping lanes, vessels are susceptible to drones, mines, and fast patrol boats. The deployment of several tiny drones by Iran to disrupt shipping, even in the absence of a full-scale blockade, is possible because of the developments in drone warfare that have been observed in Ukraine.
Global Economic and Geopolitical Consequences
Crude Market Shock: Even a temporary closure would result in a significant increase in crude prices. Analysts predict that a two-week shutdown could result in crude prices reaching $150 per barrel, with prolonged disruptions potentially reaching $200–$300, potentially precipitating a global economic crisis.
Energy security: Significant importers, such as China and India, would be dramatically impacted. To prevent a protracted disruption, China would specifically apply diplomatic and economic pressure to Iran.
Military Response: In the past, the United States and its allies have responded to threats in the strait by conducting multinational maritime security operations and naval deployments. A wider conflict could swiftly develop as a result of any attempt to forcibly reopen the strait.
Strategic and Political Assessments
Iran’s dilemma: The closure of the Strait would have a detrimental impact on Iran’s adversaries, but it would also severely restrict its own exports. Nevertheless, Iranian leaders may be inclined to tolerate this expense in the event of a total war, particularly as domestic political pressure intensifies.
U.S. and Global Response: The United States has issued a warning regarding the severe repercussions that would occur if Iran were to close the strait or target American interests. Although President Trump has issued threats of severe retribution in response to attacks on U.S. bases, he has not explicitly indicated whether the closure of Hormuz would result in direct U.S. intervention.
Broader Consequences: The potential benefits to American producers are significant, as a disruption in Gulf energy flows would not only affect oil prices but also transfer Europe’s energy dependency further toward U.S. shale.
In conclusion,
The Strait of Hormuz is perilously near to a crisis as a result of the Israel-Iran war. Iran has not yet closed the strait, but as the conflict persists and Tehran’s losses mount, the risk is growing. Any disruption to the strait’s centrality to global energy markets would have immediate and severe economic repercussions worldwide, potentially attracting significant powers and escalating the conflict far beyond its current scope.