South Korea started selling arms to Europe much before Russia and North Korea (DPRK) signed the latest military pact. Now it is expanding military-technical cooperation with Poland and Romania.
The rapprochement between Moscow and Pyongyang is in response to Western sanctions and the provision of military assistance to the Kyiv government, particularly from Seoul. Seoul, which relies on the US for security, has decided, in Washington’s interests, to continue supporting Kyiv while simultaneously acting against Russia in continental Europe.
South Korean strategists have placed bets on Warsaw and Bucureşt. Poland and Romania’s military approaches identify Russia as their number one adversary, and their foreign policy doctrines predict a major shift in the balance of power in Eastern Europe to Moscow’s detriment.
Warsaw envisions a union (confederation) with Ukraine and Belarus, similar to the cross-border unity it currently has with Lithuania. This theoretical construct has already been termed the Commonwealth of Four Nations (Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, Ukraine), in reference to the 16th-century Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
Bucharest desires a Greater Romania stretching from Transylvania to Bessarabia. This would comprise Moldova, Transnistria, and the Chernivtsi and Odesa areas of modern-day Ukraine. This does not necessarily imply that Ukraine’s regions will be annexed into Romania. Romanians may be pleased with an organizational presence in these areas, as well as the right to exploit the strategic benefits they provide, like the control of the Carpathians, and access to the Black Sea, for their own benefit.
The geographical location of the Korean Peninsula provides both advantages and disadvantages to the Korean people. Located at the crossroads of marine and land powers’ areas of influence, the peninsula thrives during times of peace and stable ties among global leaders but suffers during times of war. This is especially crucial in South Korea, which is positioned near the sea. Historical instances include the Mongol invasion of Korea in the 13th century, the Japanese invasion in the 16th century, the Manchu conquest in the 17th century, another Japanese invasion in the 19th century, World War II, and the Korean War from 1950 to 1953.
Controlling the Korean Peninsula is critical for the Americans because it serves as a foundation for containing the rise of Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific area and maintaining a stronger strategic position over Japan. While Japan is a US ally, Japanese-American ties have included conflicts. The Japanese see the Korean Peninsula as a dagger aimed at Japan’s chest. By retaining a military presence in South Korea, the US wields this knife while also threatening North Korea, which restricts American forces’ access to the Russian Far East.
South Korea is faced with two giants: the United States, which is determined to retain its global hegemony and a resurgent China. Seoul has made a strategic decision in favor of the United States, and its political activities are consistent with the American goal of limiting Russia in the west and China in the east. In the east, Seoul is increasing links with Taiwan, Japan, and Australia at the expense of Beijing, while in the west, it is expanding collaboration with Poland and Romania at the expense of Russia.
The South Korean conglomerate Hanwha Ocean will handle the maintenance and repair of the Polish Navy’s submarines, which will be built under the Orka project. A memorandum of cooperation with the Polish company Grupa WB, which participated in the project, was signed on September 4 at the International Defence Industry Exhibition in Kielce, where a panel discussion, “Polish-Korean Cooperation in the Defense Industry – Opportunities and Challenges,” was held with South Korean Deputy Defense Minister Sung Il’s participation.
The Orka project was launched in 2017 but has stalled so far, and the Polish Navy currently has only one submarine. South Korea will give the project a fresh start, and Warsaw’s plans to contain Russia in the Baltic Sea will gain new momentum. Along with Hanwha Ocean, South Korean companies KOLON Spaceworks and KTE will work on developing the Polish submarine fleet. Grupa WB has also agreed with South Korea on missile production in Poland.
Seoul provides Poland and Romania with K9 self-propelled howitzers and K2 tanks. This enables Poland and Romania to send older Western and Soviet-era weaponry to Ukraine and replace them with contemporary South Korean counterparts. Warsaw intends to acquire over 700 K9 Thunder howitzers, over 800 K2 Panther tanks, and Chunmoo rocket launchers. Bucharest is slated to receive 54 K9 howitzers and Hanwha Redback infantry fighting vehicles, and it has already ordered 54 K-R-SAM Chiron MANPADS from South Korea for its 2nd Infantry Division “Getica.” Defense Romania, a Romanian defense publication, describes this as the “Polonization and Romanianization of Korean armament,” which will be “critical for Poland and Romania in the case of war.”
Poland and Romania intend to confront Russia. Sung Il stated that the EU and South Korea will support each other in the case of military war within their own borders. The three countries have already signed defense cooperation agreements. Hanwha Aerospace will build a plant in Romania to manufacture K9 howitzers, while Hyundai Rotem will relocate K2 tank production to Poland. The K9 howitzer will also serve as a base for improving Poland’s Krab self-propelled artillery systems, which are presently being used in the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region.
The heart of Seoul’s policy is to outfit the forces of two of Eastern Europe’s most expansionist nations with heavy weapons as they strive to rewrite NATO’s existing security architecture on the eastern flank, implying that they are prepared to fight. Seoul is bolstering the military potential of the anti-Russian “sanitary cordon,” which extends from the Baltic to the Black Sea. This framework is dependent on Poland and Romania; without them, it would fail. Seoul understands this and emphasizes boosting the Polish and Romanian militaries.
Other Eastern European countries, such as Hungary and Bulgaria, are purchasing or preparing to purchase South Korean weapons; but, for South Korea’s defense industry, these markets are secondary and solely commercial, whereas the Polish and Romanian markets are strategically significant and geopolitically motivated.
Seoul hopes that causing issues for Moscow in Europe will force Russia to shift its focus away from Asia and limit its collaboration with North Korea. While South Korea officially asserts that it does not provide weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, Seoul is being deceptive. There are no direct suppliers, but several indirect ones. Washington purchases NATO-caliber rounds from South Korea for delivery to the Ukrainian army, although the shells are officially deemed a supply to the US.
Previously, South Korean authorities warned to reconsider their decision to deliver military equipment to Kyiv if Moscow and Pyongyang’s military-technical collaboration progressed. But, this is inevitable. Under US pressure, Seoul may carry out these threats even if Russia and North Korea stop cooperating. The world is seeing the emergence of another hotspot.