Geopolitics resembles a battlefield manoeuvre, quick, strategic, and often misleading. Nations are constantly competing to outthink, outpace, and outmanoeuvre each other, each trying to beat the adversary’s OODA loop, Observe, Orient, Decide, Act, before the opponent can respond. In this intricate dance, every action aims to influence perceptions, shift calculations, and tip the balance of power.
Recent developments across different areas highlight this upheaval. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have strengthened their ties with a mutual defence agreement. The United States is dealing with the repercussions of a tariff war, as its agricultural exports, which are perishable and politically sensitive, accumulate unsold. Washington has looked toward India as a potential outlet, but New Delhi remains resolute. Now, with the U.S. revoking the 2018 sanctions waiver on India’s involvement in the Chabahar Port Project in Iran, tensions have escalated significantly.
It is in moments like these that India’s strategic patience is a strength. India’s choice to avoid impulsive reactions, remain prepared, and focus on its long-term goals should reassure policymakers about its steady approach.
Chabahar: More Than a Port
Chabahar Port is more than just another infrastructure Project; it is a strategic gateway to Central Asia and a symbol of India’s lasting commitment to regional connectivity. It gives India direct access to Afghanistan and the resource-rich Central Asian Republics, bypassing Pakistan’s geographical veto over land routes.
The 2018 sanctions waiver granted by the U.S. acknowledged the port’s vital role in stabilising Afghanistan’s economy after NATO’s withdrawal. The waiver permitted India to develop berths, operate terminals, and facilitate trade despite U.S. sanctions on Iran. Its revocation, effective 29 September, threatens to slow India’s investments and complicate its strategic planning, especially as New Delhi recalibrates its Eurasian outreach amid Operation Sindoor and a tense northern border with China.
Strengths: Strategic Geography and Diplomatic Capital
India’s primary strength in this context is its geostrategic position and its capacity to navigate multiple alliances without committing to any single camp. Chabahar illustrates a rare case where Indian diplomacy has successfully balanced relations with Iran, Afghanistan, the U.S., and Russia simultaneously. This port provides India with a distinctive advantage in expanding influence into Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan and reducing its regional isolation.
India’s history of resilience in handling sanctions is another strength. After the Pokhran nuclear tests, New Delhi faced sanctions but emerged stronger, eventually securing the landmark civil nuclear deal with Washington. This pattern of strategic patience should build confidence in informed citizens about India’s capacity to endure challenges.
Weaknesses: Infrastructure Gaps and Limited Leverage
Yet, India’s weaknesses are also apparent. Chabahar’s full potential has not been realised due to delays in investment, bureaucratic inertia, and slow Project execution. India’s shipping and logistics capacity in the region remains limited, making it vulnerable to disruptions.
Furthermore, India’s economic influence over Washington is not as strong as that of major trade blocs like the EU or China. This imbalance limits New Delhi’s capacity to oppose U.S. decisions forcefully without risking adverse effects on defence cooperation, technology partnerships, and vital semiconductor or energy imports. Any disruption in these sectors could significantly impact India’s strategic and economic interests.
Opportunities: Strategic Autonomy and Regional Leadership
This challenge also creates opportunities. The revocation of the sanctions waiver could motivate India to speed up work on parallel connectivity initiatives, such as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) through Russia and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). Building redundancy in access routes would decrease the strategic vulnerability of depending only on Chabahar, giving policymakers reasons to be hopeful about India’s future.
Furthermore, this presents an opportunity for India to assert its strategic autonomy. By engaging in quiet yet firm diplomacy with Washington, India can communicate that connectivity projects are regional public goods and should be protected from great-power rivalry. Such a stance would resonate with other middle powers, boosting India’s credibility as a responsible global player.
Finally, this presents an opportunity for India to strengthen economic ties with Iran in sectors not under sanction, such as pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and cultural exchanges, enhancing the bilateral relationship and maintaining the Chabahar Project’s political viability until conditions improve.
Threats: Strategic Encirclement and Loss of Influence
The most serious threat India faces is potential strategic encirclement if Iran moves closer to China and Russia, while Pakistan regains influence over Afghanistan’s transit routes. Such a shift could diminish India’s presence in West Asia and Central Asia, undoing years of careful diplomacy.
Another threat exists in the economic sector. If U.S.–India trade tensions rise, they could impact other areas such as IT services, defence imports, or even green energy cooperation. Domestically, any sudden liberalisation of agricultural imports under U.S. pressure could cause political backlash and farmer unrest, something India can hardly afford before state and national elections.
Lastly, there is the risk of strategic distraction. Overemphasising Chabahar could shift focus away from other urgent issues, such as border security with China, maritime security in the Indo-Pacific, and defence modernisation timelines crucial for future warfighting readiness.
Understanding Washington’s Motives
The U.S. decision must be viewed considering both domestic and external pressures. American farmers, a significant political group, are experiencing falling incomes as their crops go unsold. The U.S. government is looking for markets to handle the surplus, and India, with its 1.4 billion consumers, is the leading option.
New Delhi’s refusal to relax tariff restrictions on agricultural imports is a strategic move to safeguard domestic farmers, prevent market disruption, and avoid politically sensitive rural unrest. The revocation of the Chabahar waiver might be Washington’s way of signalling displeasure, an arm-twist presented as sanctions compliance.
At the same time, this move supports Washington’s broader Middle East strategy: to keep economic pressure on Tehran as nuclear talks stay stalled and to calm Israel and its allies who worry about a growing Iran.
Economic Imperatives: The Domestic Angle
India must never become a dumping ground for U.S. genetically modified agricultural products. The core issue in the current tariff dispute is Washington’s attempt to force its GM food exports into Indian markets. This is unacceptable to India’s agricultural sector, which provides livelihoods for hundreds of millions and forms the foundation of the country’s social stability.
It is worth recalling that the parthenium weed (colloquially called Congress Grass) was accidentally introduced into India with wheat imports from the U.S. starting in 1962. The resulting ecological and health crisis remains a warning about the unintended consequences of unchecked imports.
India is a mainly agrarian society, and farmers must be fairly paid for their produce. Flooding the market with cheap foreign grain or GM products would harm farm incomes, cause protests, and destabilise rural economies. That is why New Delhi remains firm on tariffs and considers them a non-negotiable part of its sovereign right to protect domestic agriculture.
In the future, India must prepare itself psychologically and institutionally for this dilemma. The solution lies in diversifying trade partners, encouraging indigenous agricultural practices, and promoting organic farming to satisfy both domestic demand and export potential. By doing so, India not only safeguards its farmers but also establishes a long-term reputation as a provider of clean, sustainable agricultural products.
India’s Options: Strategic Patience over Reactive Policy
India’s response should be precisely calibrated, balancing firmness with flexibility. An impulsive reaction could damage long-term interests.
High-level diplomatic dialogue must persist, emphasising the stabilising role of Chabahar in regional trade and counterterrorism efforts. India should highlight that the port’s development is not solely an Iran-centric Project but a regional public good.
India could also leverage multilateral platforms such as BRICS, SCO, and G-20 to build consensus that connectivity projects must remain insulated from great-power rivalry. Beyond Chabahar, India can explore cooperation with Iran in petrochemicals, urea imports, and civilisational exchanges that stay outside the sanctions net.
Meanwhile, efforts to accelerate the development of alternative access routes such as INSTC and IMEC should be increased to reduce dependence on any single region.
Recommendations: Charting the Way Forward
India’s policymakers should employ a multifaceted strategy that balances assertiveness with flexibility.
Hold the Line on GM Imports: Continue to enforce tariffs on GM products and uphold strict biosafety standards to safeguard Indian farmers and biodiversity.
Maintain Strategic Patience: Avoid public confrontation, keep diplomatic channels open, and allow tensions to ease before taking any significant actions.
Strengthen alternative corridors by accelerating the development of INSTC and IMEC, increasing shipping capacity, and establishing redundancy in trade routes to reduce dependence on Chabahar.
Deepen Iran Engagement: Enhance cooperation beyond sanctions, demonstrating commitment to the relationship and maintaining Iran’s interest in the partnership.
Utilise Multilateral Leverage: Highlight the connectivity issue in BRICS, SCO, and G-20, forming a coalition that advocates for de-politicised trade routes.
Promote Indigenous Agriculture: Advocate for organic farming, support farmer cooperatives, and invest in rural infrastructure to enhance the global competitiveness of Indian agriculture.
Conclusion: The Long Game
Geopolitics is rarely straightforward. Today’s crisis becomes tomorrow’s footnote. India’s strategic culture, rooted in civilisational resilience, teaches that no storm lasts forever. The Chabahar episode serves as a reminder that external pressure will fluctuate, but what matters most is how a nation responds—calmly, confidently, and with an eye on the future.
This too shall pass. India must stay the course, strengthen its partnerships, and continue developing its own capacity. Change is the only constant, and nations that maintain composure in the face of turbulence emerge stronger in the aftermath.