The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is headed for a stalemate, negotiated settlement is loss of face for the U.S

There are growing doubts among politicians in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom that Ukraine will be able to evict the Russians from eastern Ukraine and Crimea.

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Joseph P Chacko
Joseph P Chacko
Joseph P. Chacko is the publisher of Frontier India. He holds an M.B.A in International Business. Books: Author: Foxtrot to Arihant: The Story of Indian Navy's Submarine Arm; Co Author : Warring Navies - India and Pakistan. *views are Personal

Despite celebrating one year of surviving the Russian limited military operations, receiving promises of more money and substandard military equipment, including outdated inferior tanks from the West, and receiving praise for the bravery and resiliency of the people, Ukraine’s fight appears to be nearly done.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the public rhetoric about Ukraine’s heroic resistance conceals deepening private doubts among politicians in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom that Ukraine will be able to evict the Russians from eastern Ukraine and Crimea, which Russia has controlled since 2014. There is an acknowledgement of the fact that the West can only sustain the war effort for so long if the conflict reaches a stalemate.

General Mark Milley, chairman of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff, has been criticised for publicly stating that Ukraine is unlikely to achieve substantial additional fighting successes and should proceed to the bargaining table. It is highly likely that Ukraine may join yet another U.S.-supported fighting group in the international hall of shame, the last being Afghanistan.

The war is unlikely to result in a decisive win for either side, but the anti-Russian camp in the West is fixated on a total Russian defeat. The cause is as brutal for Ukrainians as it is absurd regarding the relative military forces of both sides. Emanuel Macron, the French President, urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to settle in exchange for an unspecified future security deal with NATO, a conundrum given that Russia attacked Ukraine for the same reason. 

The Russian incursion is a windfall to the U.S. since it has bolstered Atlantic solidarity and opened their purse strings to the American military industrial complex, a long-standing American demand as internationalised by previous President Donald Trump. The war tightened Washington’s hold over unauthorised peace initiatives emanating from continental Europe. NATO was created to prevent France and Germany from pursuing independent European defence and foreign policies, such as those of the West European Union (WEU). Washington has made this a geopolitical priority since the end of World War II. An investigative journalist, Seymour Hersh, even claims that the U.S. blew up the Nordstream pipelines to prevent closer energy and political links between Russia and Germany.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett disclosed that he had made great progress towards a negotiated settlement before his efforts were thwarted by Washington and London, who had quite different political aims than Kyiv. This has resulted in renewed pressure for a ceasefire. It has become evident that Ukraine was running out of soldiers and unlikely to recover much, if any, of its lost territory.

The Chinese have suggested a peace plan that has sparked Zelensky’s interest and won Macron’s initial backing, much to the alarm of Washington, which would be humiliated and opposed to a major diplomatic victory for Beijing. The U.S., especially President Joe Biden and his coterie, is viewed as the greatest hurdle to resolving this issue.

There is growing opposition to the continued funding of the war in Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and even the United States Congress, particularly among Republicans. The U.S. stock markets can only profit from Ukraine’s post-conflict reconstruction once the fighting has ended. Europeans have more pressing spending concerns. The world’s inflation continues to rise. Delays in grain exports and other global supply chains, such as those for fertilisers, are inflicting havoc globally. Antiwar demonstrations have already begun around the globe.

With no end in sight and no substantial Ukrainian successes, public support in the West, as opposed to official support, will continue to fade as war fatigue sets in. Currently, a stalemate on the battlefield is equivalent to a Russian triumph. The world is still determining if Russia will cede any significant geographical gains it has won. 

Moscow views a pro-NATO government on Russia’s western border as an existential threat. (Finland and Sweden are not yet in NATO.) Ukraine and Russia share a 1,000-kilometer border, so an agreement must be reached. The battle of attrition is in Moscow’s favour, as it can withstand significantly bigger military losses than Ukraine or even NATO.

The West now understands that this conflict has evolved into a proxy war between NATO and Russia, with Ukrainians carrying most of the human and material costs. Fighting “to the last Ukrainian,” as stated by Ambassador Chas Freeman, is viewed in the West as an effective strategy for dwindling the size of the Russian military but with diminishing marginal utility. Even Zelensky and his opaque government, which includes corrupt and neo-Nazis, are aware that the ‘Human Fodder’ harvest is the real reason they have garnered so much support up to this point, even if, as they claim, it will not be enough to win the war. Ukraine will need NATO body bags to sustain, if not win, this war.

Western European NATO countries understand but ignore that Ukraine requires a NATO army, which Eastern European NATO members are eager to offer, especially given the failure of Western armaments against Russia.

Russia is not as isolated as the U.S. would like the world to believe, notably in the Indian Subcontinent, Africa, East Asia and South America. Russia has been the other pole that maintains geopolitics and geoeconomics. 

The economic, diplomatic, and sports sanctions have not affected the route Putin has set for his country, and relations between Moscow and Beijing have strengthened.

The West has more blood on its hands, like in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria. The West’s approval of Turkey’s annexation of northern Cyprus, its support for Israel’s effective annexation of the Golan Heights and West Bank, and its blockade of Gaza are some more examples of the double talk by the West. 

In Ukraine, the West does not support any moral or legal norms. Rather, it is opportunistically profiting from a heart rending situation of its own creation. A historical context is required to make sense of things. Whoever comprehends how the U.S. moved NATO steadily eastward towards the Russian border following the fall of the Soviet Union, despite assurances to the contrary, will not be startled by Moscow’s reaction.

The world knows how Washington has manipulated Ukrainian domestic politics since it promoted regime change in 2014 to provoke Moscow. 

It should be remembered that the Russian war on Ukraine was not started to grab territory (most of it was anyway ungovernable by Ukraine), but to create an atmosphere to negotiate or create a buffer between NATO and the Russian border. The U.S. and Europe are to lose face in the event of a negotiated settlement taking place.

The world can take lessons from Ukraine. Ukraine should have known that the definition of being sovereign does mean it acts as a U.S. puppet or join the NATO alliance. There are myriad ways of being neighbourly yet sovereign.


  1. The author really doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Current stasis is due to weather – primarily mud and Ukraine using an old boxing trick call “rope-a-dope”. That is, let Russia destroy its military for minimal gains. Russia will probably lose most, if not all, of captured 2014+ Ukrainian territory by year end if China does not supply weaponry to Russia. Russia is running out of equipment, men and money. Think about that. It will lead you to the proper conclusions.

  2. Israel justifiably annexed the Golan Heights after the terrorist, nazi trained Syrian Regime attacked Israel in 1967 after a massive military build up on the heights with artillery aimed at Israeli kibbutzim. Syria invaded Israel in 1948 and also later in a surprise attack on the jewish high holiday in 1973.

    Eli Cohen, a brilliant Israeli spy (whose parents fled Syria a generation earlier due to anti-jewish, pan-arabist hate) actually gave his life for Israel. He saved Israel in the 67 war by infiltrating the highest levels of the Syrian Baath Party. He mapped out the golan heights camouflaged artillery positions all by memory alone. He mapped it all out for the IDF which saved the only jewish state in the world (compared to the 22 arab countries in addition to non arab-islamic countries like Pakistan, Iran, etc). Eli Cohen, knowing all the risks to his life was tortured beyond belief for a long time and then executed in a public lynching by the baath party (founded by a “christian” marxist arab).

    Syria killed more of its own people than Israel ever has. and that includes the Hafez al-asad government. One massacred killed thousands of arabs in a day. Later his son Bashar surpassed him by joining up with the Russians to use chemical weapons against anti-regime forces (who were not even connected to isis) during the civil war.

    Syria has occupied Lebanon for decades and has brought the country to financial ruin and endless fighting thanks to the Iranian backed terrorist group Hezbollah. The PLO also operated in southern lebanon and launched many terrorist attacks against northern Israel which resulted in the 1982 invasion of Lebanon (which was unfortunately both a tactical and strategic disaster for Israel).

    The palestinians exist in name only. They are lagely from Tans-Jordan (later Jordan) which was the larger eastern half of the british mandate of Palestine and were expelled from Jordan in Black September many decades ago when the PLO (newly formed and newly named) tried to overthrow the government.

    Syria is still supporting Iranian backed terror groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza and has provided these ‘palestinian’ terrorists with weapons and intelligence for decades. These are groups that terrorize their own arab population in Gaza and train toddlers and children from birth to be suicide bombers.

    Gaza was originally occupied by Egypt after invading Israel in 1948. Only after 67 when Israel defeated the Egyptians, Syrians, Jordanians did they invent a new title (the palestinian people). They never granted these refugees citizenship while they occupied Gaza. Nasser and the other pan-arabist pro-neo-nazi leaders and countries kept Gaza and the West Bank (which was always known as Judea and Samaria) in squalor living conditions with the true purpose of creating hate for the Jews in the new generations to follow They also did this to gather sympathy for these newly named refugees from the international community. And it worked. Now everyone, including most Americans and Europeans blames Israel for what the pan-arabist nations did. Iran, being a non-arab mostly muslim country has now taken the lead in promoting this narrative, even more so than some arab states now.

    And Ariel Sharon withdrew Israelis from Gaza in 2005, many jews who had lived there for a long time or had historical roots there. A territory that Israel rightfully took back after the arab invasions of 1967. Sharon did this as olive branch to the arabs and for the sake of peace and less terrorism against (israeli jews AND israeli arabs) and I whole heartedly supported him then for taking such a brave step and for fostering good will.

    But guess what happened? Hamas and the PLO immediately started a horrific civil war with each other resulting in kidnappings and murder. Hamas won and then instituted Sharia law executing many of their own arab people in Gaza for absurd and horrific reasons.

    Iran wants to nuke Tel-Aviv and other cities (including Jerusalem) which will result not only in a second holocaust, but also the complete annihilation of Israeli Arabs and “palestinians”.

    Why India has chosen to believe the Iranian narrative without even considering arab lives is beyond me. Btw, try to convert from islam to hinduism in Iran and see what happens. I will spare you the ‘work ‘of such a ‘difficult’ intellectual exercise. Torture and execution happens.

    Shame on the world for singling out Israel (under the guise of ‘humanitarian reasons’ and falsely accusing them of occupation based on old anti-jewish narratives akin to blood libel while other nations and peoples commit genocide everyday Hint, China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, South Africa, Venezuela, Cuba and on and on to near infinity.

    Israel has never done what Iran ha. People can covert from judaism without the fear of torture and death because of Israeli government policy. There are small pockets of zealot extremists in Israel that may wish to do this, but the government in Israel has always condemned this evil and has never executed anyone who converts. There are no execution cranes in Israel either under Likud or Shas, keep that in mind. The same cannot be said about Iran. They kill children all the time by stoning or hanging. A young girl was actually hung from a crane in Iran for being raped by an Iranian police officer.

    Again, why India supports Iran or at the very least looks the other way is beyond oll comprehension. Israel has even cooperated with India on air and missile defense for example Barak 8 or Barak ER.

  3. Chako has always been proved wrong, this is yet another pathetic attempt to diguise the fact that India has a lot of pretty much uselesss Russian military equipment which China would chew through , like a hot knife through butter. This idea that Ukraine or its people are fighting for the uSA is clearly nonsense, they will prevail as their morale to fight is high,Russian morale is not.The Ukraineans fight for their own freedom , liberating themselves from the boot of Russian Imperialism. India would do better to modernise its forces and either (if it has the capacity) to develope or buy more European and American military material as I think that process has already started.India is massively behind China in iits military development,probably due to its lack of focussed discipline , corruption and in fighting. But I believe they can eventually develope an independant military industrial complex. It is time for India to take a hard pragmatic look at the world and speed up its independance for armamants.


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