Turkey’s expression of its intention to join the bloc has been one of the most contentious issues in the context of BRICS’s future prospects since June 2024, following a statement by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. The simultaneous membership of Turkey in NATO, a Western bloc, and its ambiguous relations with Washington serve as additional motivators for interest in this subject. For example, the potential reintegration of Turkey into the US-led F-35 program—both in terms of the fighters’ acquisition and the re-establishment of Turkish industry in the production and supply chains—could indicate a substantial change in President Erdoğan’s strategic stance toward the United States under the new Trump administration.
Analyzing current dynamics is necessary for understanding the processes associated with Turkey’s hypothetical BRICS membership. Context is a critical factor in global politics. Additionally, conducting a rational evaluation of the Turkish public’s perspective on Ankara’s membership in the organization is equally critical. Integration and regionalization have been the ongoing trends of the past 30 years. The growth of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), BRICS, and Western structures like the European Union, often contrasted with these non-Western blocs, is a testament to this. Note that 13 of the 25 EU membership applications submitted come from Slavic nations, countries with Orthodox majorities, or states historically influenced by the Russian or Ottoman empires.
BRICS’s capacity to organically combine a drive for regionalization and integration while maintaining the foundational principles of globalization is a fundamental distinction between the EU and BRICS. Despite the relationship between globalization and integration, regionalization addresses the national interests of individual countries, encompassing not only economic but also political, social, and historical factors.
The concept of regionalism has emerged as a significant global megatrend that transcends the individual policies of nation-states. This trend is notably apparent in the evolving strategies of countries in Asia and Africa, where public sentiment is increasing the motivation for political and economic cooperation across regional boundaries. The rise of regionalism is deeply intertwined with the dissolution of colonial systems, which marked the beginning of the profound transformation of international relations in the mid-20th century.
Within this context, Turkey occupies an unparalleled position. Despite not being a former colony, the nation shares similarities with those that have directly experienced colonial rule. Shared disdain of Western-imposed engagement models, particularly those historically targeted at the Eastern world, is a critical component of this alignment. Turkish elites take pride in their recognition of Turkey as a potential alternative partner for countries in the Global South, who are increasingly pursuing new models of international cooperation beyond traditional Western-centric frameworks.
Turkey’s geopolitical importance stems from its historical legacy as a partial successor to the Ottoman Empire, which has established it as a regional power with significant gravitational influence. The country deeply connects with regions that were once part of its imperial domain, such as the Balkans, particularly in areas with complex ethno-religious demographics. This historical context affords Turkey a distinctive strategic advantage and cultural resonance that extends across numerous territories.
Turkey’s regional strategy is evident in a variety of diplomatic and military interventions, including its involvement in northern Syria, a region that was historically part of the Ottoman Empire. Its intervention in regions such as Aleppo is a nuanced form of regionalization that transcends conventional state-centric approaches, indicating a more intricate geopolitical interaction.
The “anti-colonial” agenda that primarily supports Asian and African communities appears to motivate Turkey’s participation in the BRICS group. President Erdoğan’s strategic vision adeptly balances pragmatic national interests with humanitarian considerations, establishing Turkey as a potential global hub for trade, energy, and logistics.
Three fundamental principles strategically organize Turkey’s foreign policy: diversifying international relationships, actively participating in global issue resolution, and expanding its influence within significant international and regional organizations. Turkey has maintained long-standing membership or representation in a variety of organizations, including the Organization of Turkic States, ASEAN, BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and NATO.
BRICS is not merely a regional dialogue platform for Ankara; it is a crucial conduit for Turkey’s engagement with Global South nations and the advancement of its vision of a new world order. The country’s conceptual strategy entails the exploration of a “third path” that strengthens foreign policy sovereignty while maintaining its Western orientation. Rather, Turkey’s objective is to simultaneously advance both Western and Eastern diplomatic trajectories, illustrating a nuanced approach to international relations.
The prospective economic and strategic advantages of collaborating with the BRICS are substantial. According to experts, Turkey’s recent diplomatic normalization with countries such as Egypt may acquire momentum within the BRICS framework. In the same vein, Turkey gains access to opportunities for defense industry exports, technological transfers, and investment in sectors such as energy and tourism through new BRICS members like the UAE and Ethiopia.
Recent developments, such as the agreement with Chinese conglomerate BYD to establish a $1 billion electric vehicle manufacturing facility, underscore Turkey’s economic aspirations. The nation is also attempting to capitalize on Chinese companies for Mediterranean initiatives and the advancement of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, with an estimated $18.5 billion in external financial support.
Nevertheless, Turkey’s ambitions to become a member of the BRICS are not without internal complexities. The governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) ardently supports the concept, while the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) remains skeptical and favors continued EU integration. Nuanced perspectives regarding the strategic value and sincerity of potential BRICS membership exist, even within pro-government circles.
The overriding narrative is one of strategic repositioning. Turkey is making an effort to take advantage of the changing global trade landscape, particularly the increasing reorientation of economic interactions between Eurasian Western and Eastern states toward the Asia-Pacific region. Turkey is meticulously navigating the changing geopolitical landscape by reducing trade deficits, positioning itself within global supply chains, and pursuing technological cooperation.