The hype surrounding the U.S. Air Force’s sixth-generation stealth bomber has died down since its unveiling in December 2022. While the program remains highly classified, the service says it is on the right track and breaking new ground. However, experts suggest that additional funding is necessary.
The program, referred to by the service as the “cornerstone of the Air Force’s future bomber forces,” began in 2011 as a secretive Long Range Strike Bomber and emerged from the shadows in 2015 when the Department of Defense announced its intent to contract with Northrop Grumman.
In honor of the Doolittle Raiders from World War II, the program, which was a continuation of the canceled Next Generation Bomber program, eventually adopted the name, B-21 Raider, with the construction of the first aircraft commencing in summer 2019.
Design features began to surface in January 2020, and the construction of the second aircraft started in 2021 as the first one neared completion. In December 2022, a dramatic ceremony at Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale, California, officially unveiled the first test aircraft.
Since then, the public has seen little of the aircraft, but in May 2024, images of the program’s test flights appeared, the first of which took place in November 2023 at Edwards Air Force Base in California.
General James Slife, the Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff, stated during a July 2024 event at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies that the B-21 program is “moving very, very well.” The acquisition program is functioning excellently, and the test program is meeting expectations, he said. He added that the Air Force is very optimistic that the B-21 will provide some transformational capabilities that, “frankly,” will help with the Air Force’s first sixth-generation platform.
What is known about the program has barely changed since its launch in December 2022. Agile software development technologies and digital design tools have enabled the development of the Raider, the first Air Force bomber in three decades. The aircraft will be a dual-capable stealth bomber, capable of delivering both conventional and nuclear weapons.
The B-21, part of the ongoing modernization of the nuclear triad, will be one member of a larger family of conventional long-range strike systems, including intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), electronic attack, and communication assets. It is also designed to conduct both manned and unmanned operations.
Given the Air Force’s difficulties with programs that exceed budgets and fall behind schedule, such as the F-35 fighter jet and the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile, some find it hard to believe the Air Force’s assurances that the B-21 is on schedule and progressing well. However, experts suggest the narrative is tightly controlled for a good reason.
When the program began, then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates mandated that setting the average procurement unit cost as a key performance parameter would be the best means of controlling costs, according to an Air Force fact sheet.
At its inception, the program imposed a price ceiling of $550 million per B-21 in 2010 base year dollars. Exact quantities remain classified, but the Air Force has stated its intention to procure at least 100 units.
The Air Force’s fiscal year 2025 budget request estimates a total procurement of $25.9 billion for the B-21 by 2029. The fiscal years 2024 and 2025 budget requests included about $5.3 billion for procurement, as well as funding for research, testing, and evaluation for the B-21 program.
While the overall budget remains on track, Northrop Grumman reported in its January 2024 earnings report that it suffered a nearly $1.6 billion loss in the fourth quarter of 2023 due to inflation and supply chain issues. The fixed-price contract for the program’s first five production lots meant Northrop Grumman had to absorb additional costs. In a June 2024 statement, the company said the program “remains on schedule” and is meeting the key performance parameter of average procurement unit cost.
Dave Keffer, corporate vice president and chief financial officer of Northrop Grumman, stated during the company’s July 25, 2024 earnings report that the program currently includes 21 aircraft in the first five initial low-rate production lots, but he expects future aircraft to be more profitable.
Experts estimate that 100 B-21s are “a great start,” but a force capable of deterring real challenges should consist of at least 300, including 76 B-52H bombers and 224 B-21s. However, the reality is that neither the Air Force nor the industrial base can support such numbers.
While the Air Force may face bigger challenges, Northrop Grumman CEO Kathy Warden stated during the July 2024 earnings report that the program remains on track. The B-21 is “advancing well through the test program,” and “the team continues to perform exceptionally well, and we remain on schedule and within budget,” she said.
According to her, B-21 test pilots report that the aircraft flies like the simulator, “which is another indicator that our digital environment is effectively predicting aircraft performance, reducing the number of new discoveries and risks.”
Digital design and agile software development are absolutely part of the “digital aircraft.”
Digital design may allow engineers and designers using software-representative models of the aircraft to identify a problem early and address it before getting “too far into production.”
The Air Force’s Rapid Capabilities Office manages the acquisition program, focusing on making the test aircraft as representative of production as possible, according to the Air Force. The Air Force builds the test aircraft on the same production line, using the same personnel and tools as in final production.
The solution lies with Congress—in recalibrating defense budgets that have neglected modernization “since the Reagan era.”