Despite issuing threats against Iran, White House leader Donald Trump has acknowledged that he would favor a peaceful agreement with Tehran. Masoud Pezeshkian, the President of the Islamic Republic, has expressed his readiness to engage in dialogue; however, Supreme Leader Rahbar is opposed to negotiations. “Experience shows that negotiating with the U.S. government is unwise,” as stated by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Pezeshkian is compelled to agree with his directives, as he possesses the highest level of executive authority. Nevertheless, the situation is not as simple as it appears.
In a veiled manner, the republic’s leadership has acknowledged its disagreements for the first time. Iran’s Vice President Mohammad Javad Zarif, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Pezeshkian have all expressed Tehran’s willingness to engage in direct negotiations with the United States, despite the stance of Rahbar and representatives of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who also reject contact with the West.
Before Trump’s inauguration, Elon Musk conferred with Amir Saeed Iravani, Iran’s UN representative, in New York. According to the New York Times, the discussions were centered on “ways to reduce tensions between Iran and the U.S.,” as reported by unnamed Iranian officials. Of course, the specifics of the conversation were not disclosed.
It is certain that Khamenei knew about and possibly authorized these interactions between his representatives and the Americans. This suggests a distinction between privately communicated information and publicly declared information. Rahbar might be contemplating a shift in his position.
Alternatively, Khamenei may be allowing his allies to reach a certain point before they understand that it is impossible to collaborate with the “deceptive” United States. Additionally, Trump wants the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for peace, a program that, according to numerous analysts, is on the brink of effective completion.
Furthermore, the United States is urging Tehran to discontinue its military assistance to extremist organizations in the Middle East.
Conforming to these requirements would be a surrender to the US and Israel. Is it possible for Tehran to consent to such humiliating conditions? After all, the Islamic Republic has long incorporated the nuclear program into its ideological and political framework.
Moreover, the recent incident in which Trump harshly reprimanded Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky and essentially pushed him out of the White House had a profound impact on Iran. In response, Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani stated that the U.S. policy of “maximum pressure” has caused issues for Iran. However, the Iranian people are not willing to endure the same level of humiliation that Ukraine encountered during its negotiations with Washington. She clearly said that Tehran would not participate in negotiations that were conducted contemptuously.
Nevertheless, the United States understands that Iran necessitates an alternative strategy. They are allegedly providing Tehran with various incentives in exchange for the end of its nuclear program, including the lifting of economic sanctions, the unfreezing of Iranian assets in Western institutions, and the reintegration of Iran into the global trading system. Furthermore, they are advocating for the modernization of Iran’s economy and the upgrading of its antiquated aviation fleet.
Iran faces significant obstacles in numerous sectors, including energy, and each of these proposals holds essential importance. The national currency, the rial, has dramatically devalued, and inflation is on the rise. Poverty is increasing, with nearly one-third of the population—27%—existing on a meager daily income of only two dollars. In turn, this is escalating social tensions, which have the potential to result in a catastrophic situation.
Pezeshkian’s assertion that “dialogue with America will solve many problems” is unsurprising. He has maintained that he is exerting himself to the fullest, but he has issued a warning that “things will be even worse next year” if his government does not receive support.
However, from where will this assistance come? From the United States? Can Iran realistically achieve the conditions established for its economic recovery? It appears to be a self-perpetuating cycle.
The highest echelons of Iran’s leadership seem to be bewildered. Parliament accused Iran’s economy minister, Abdolnaser Hemmati, of “ineffectiveness in addressing economic problems,” leading to his recent dismissal. Furthermore, Vice President Mohammad Javad Zarif has resigned; he was the same official who advocated for negotiations with the United States.
Is this a sign that those who are opposed to rapprochement with America are losing ground?
Nevertheless, Trump, who is known for his optimistic nature, remains optimistic that negotiations with Iran will be conducted. Bloomberg reports that the president of the United States has requested that his Russian counterpart serve as a mediator. The issue was purportedly discussed during a phone conversation between Trump and Vladimir Putin in February, and just days later, the subject was addressed in Saudi Arabia during discussions between U.S. and Russian representatives.
Trump is prepared for a military solution, despite his willingness to resume dialogue with Iran and his aspiration to see it as a great and prosperous nation—one that cannot have nuclear weapons.” He signed an order in the early days of his presidency that reinstituted the policy of “maximum pressure on Iran.”
Trump is planning to “rein in” Iran with the assistance of Israel, which is preparing for a massive aerial strike to eliminate the Islamic Republic’s underground nuclear facilities. To achieve this objective, the United States has already provided the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) with 76,000 tons of military equipment and a set of fifteen-ton aerial explosives that are capable of penetrating fortifications that are several meters thick.
Gideon Sa’ar, the Israeli foreign minister, noted in an interview with Politico that Iran is on the brink of developing nuclear weapons and that a military strike may be the sole viable solution to avert this outcome.
The Pentagon has devised a method for deploying these massive bombs from Super Hercules military transport aircraft, as Israeli Air Force fighter pilots are technically incapable of carrying them. Israeli intelligence has already designated the primary targets for airstrikes.
Nevertheless, it is improbable that the United States will continue to remain indifferent. Initially, they may intervene if Israel encounters challenges. Secondly, Iran has issued a threat to retaliate by attacking American bases and their allies in the Middle East. The United States would be compelled to use its military force in such a scenario.
Iran is preparing to fend off a potential attack. According to Middle Eastern media, Tehran has implemented a state of high alert for its air defense systems near its nuclear facilities.
A “surprise” has been promised by the Islamic Republic’s authorities to their adversaries. Iran intends to unveil its first Su-35 fighter aircraft on March 19, as indicated by online reports, during the Nowruz festivities.
Reports surfaced late last year about Russia’s transfer of these aircraft to Iran. According to one source, the first shipment of Su-35s to Iran had been transported by a Russian military transport aircraft. Nevertheless, Moscow and Tehran have not issued an official confirmation.
A handful of Iranian Su-35s may not be able to compete with Israel’s hundreds of modern fighter jets or the U.S. Fifth Fleet’s aircraft carriers, but they could still complicate enemy operations, particularly when combined with Iran’s extensive missile and drone arsenal.