Ukraine is unable to resist the use of American long-range ATACMS missiles for assaults against Russia. Kyiv quickly claimed that a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) retaliated against Kviv, targeting the “Yuzhmash” facility in Dnipropetrovsk (now Dnipro). Of course, the Russian missile was non-nuclear; however, the message was unambiguous.
On November 17, the narrative regarding Zelensky’s authorization for using long-range munitions against Russia began to circulate in Western media. At first, it was unclear if Zelensky had made such a decision or if it was part of the West’s information warfare.
Reports mentioned the outgoing Biden administration’s authorization for the use of American missiles, and leaders in the United Kingdom and France provided similar hints. Nevertheless, European countries subsequently denied these allegations, labeling them “fake news.” President Biden, on the other hand, refrained from responding to press inquiries by participating in the G20 summit in Brazil.
However, on November 19, Ukraine (or, probably, US specialists operating the ATACMS) launched long-range missiles at a military facility in the Bryansk region of Russia. The S-400 and Pantsir missile defense systems intercepted five of the six missiles involved in the attack, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
According to reports, Russia responded on November 21 by launching a ballistic missile attack on the Yuzhmash facility in Dnipro, potentially employing an R-26 “Rubezh” or “Topol” ICBM. At least six moving flashes in the attack videos indicate the missile’s multiple warheads, each designed to target a specific objective.
A variety of factors led to the selection of Yuzhmash as a target. It symbolically represents the legacy of Soviet missile and space technology, which once produced top-tier ICBMs, satellites, and other equipment. Strategically, there are apprehensions that Ukraine may recommence or have already resumed the production of ICBMs or similar technologies for use against Russia as it increases its defense industry investments. The objective of the attack was to impede or eliminate these operations.
Vyacheslav Smolenko, the former director of the Yuzhmash Russian division, observed that the plant is a direct threat to Russia, referring to it as a “scalpel” in the hands of ‘criminals’. Despite previous attacks on the facility this year—on July 15 and November 17—Yuzhmash remained operational, designed during the Soviet era to withstand nuclear strikes. Damage to surface structures did not affect the operation of underground systems.
Yuzhmash has the potential to deliver unexpected surprises not only in the ongoing conflict but beyond, as Ukraine’s expanding military-industrial ambitions could pose additional obstacles.
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, Yuzhmash manufactured a mockup of a Russian Iskander missile with a nuclear warhead. The purported purpose of the missile was to falsely accuse Russia of using nuclear weapons in the Chornobyl zone. In October, Russia issued a warning to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regarding such provocations, requesting inspections of critical Ukrainian facilities. However, they disregarded the warnings, potentially leading to the Yuzhmash strike.
Russia has declined to provide comments regarding the missile strike that occurred on November 21. During an online briefing, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov directed inquiries to the Defense Ministry, while Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova declined to respond.
In the interim, Zelensky accused Russia of employing Ukraine as a testing ground for ICBMs, disregarding the fact that Western nations have long utilized Ukraine to test their own weaponry. The uncertainty surrounding the precise sort of Russian missile employed could possibly complicate evaluations of potential future threats.
Western journalists largely dispute the use of ICBMs, suggesting instead the deployment of a medium-range ballistic missile. However, this distinction changes little, particularly for European nations.
Some Western agencies have reported that Ukraine may request permission from Biden to deploy Tomahawk missiles against Russia. These missiles, which are capable of delivering conventional or nuclear warheads, have a range of up to 2,500 kilometers in specific configurations, which elevates the risks to a dangerous level.
Given Russia’s recently revised nuclear doctrine, approved on November 19, this escalation poses a threat to the existence of Western nations. It is uncertain whether the West will be able to prevent its Ukrainian proxy from launching self-destructive attacks on Russia.