The Aeroflot Group is gearing up for a major fleet transformation in the coming decade. However, the transition to Russian-built aircraft will not necessitate the quick retirement of its current Airbus and Boeing jets. Rather, the airline intends to maintain a substantial portion of its foreign-made narrow-body fleet in operation for as long as their technical condition and remaining service life permit, while steadily increasing the number of Russian aircraft.
According to Aeroflot CEO Sergei Alexandrovsky, the strategy expects a fleet division of approximately 50% Russian and 50% foreign aircraft within the next ten years. The target, which was announced earlier this year, is one of the most definitive indicators of the manner in which Russia’s largest airline anticipates managing the transition from its current Western-built fleet to aircraft such as the MC-21 and the SJ-100.
Airbus and Boeing Are Not Going Away Quickly
Aeroflot’s immediate challenge is that its current fleet is still heavily reliant on Boeing and Airbus aircraft. The group currently operates 59 wide-body and 212 narrow-body Boeing and Airbus aircraft, as well as 78 Russian-built Superjet 100s. iFly is operating four additional Airbus A330s under wet-lease arrangements, which include the aircraft and crews.
Andrey Napolnov, the investor-relations director of Aeroflot, has now clarified that the group does not intend to terminate its foreign aircraft solely because new Russian aircraft are entering service.
The group’s fleet has an average age of approximately 11 years, which means that many aircraft have a substantial remaining service life. The situation is particularly favorable for the Airbus A320 family and Boeing 737s operated by Pobeda. The aircraft in question are typically less than ten years old, which implies that replacing them solely on the basis of their age would be economically unsound.
Therefore, Aeroflot’s objective is to maintain these aircraft “on the wing” for an extended period, with the duration of continued operation contingent upon the condition of individual airframes and the type of aircraft.
During the next few years, this approach may prove particularly crucial, as Russian manufacturers will be required to increase production at a rapid pace in order to accommodate the airline group’s ambitious fleet-renewal plans.
The 50:50 Fleet Target Changes the Transition Equation
Alexandrovsky stated in April that Aeroflot anticipated a 50:50 split between Russian and imported aircraft within a ten-year timeframe. He also emphasized that the successful realization of this objective would require a close partnership between the Russian aviation industry and airlines to guaranty that new domestic aircraft are operationally competitive, efficient, and modern.
The airline has significant plans for the MC-21 in particular. A firm contract for 18 aircraft is in place with Aeroflot, and a second agreement for 90 MC-21s is expected to cover deliveries from 2029 to 2032. The company has also previously indicated that it anticipates receiving approximately 200 MC-21 aircraft by 2033.
That means the MC-21 will become one of the principal instruments for changing the composition of Aeroflot’s fleet. However, the airline is afforded a significant buffer by the ongoing use of Boeing and Airbus while the production of the MC-21 is expanded.
MC-21 Production Must Become Predictable
Ultimately, the 50:50 strategy’s success will be contingent upon the production capacity of Russia’s aircraft and the ability of manufacturers to deliver them at a predictable and increasing rate.
The MC-21-310 production target at the Irkutsk Aviation Plant is to establish a delivery schedule of one passenger aircraft every two months in 2027. Subsequently, production would gradually increase to 12–15 aircraft annually, followed by 24 aircraft and, ultimately, 36 aircraft annually.
Russia’s long-term planning documents include the annual production target of 36 aircraft. Nevertheless, the rate of the ramp-up is inextricably linked to the capacity of suppliers to supply domestically produced components at the necessary volume.
As a result, the Irkutsk plant is restructuring production to establish more robust connections between its diverse manufacturing divisions and cross-functional teams. The delivery of the first serial MC-21 has also been regarded as a practical test of the plant’s ability to maintain a production schedule in actual industrial conditions.
The MC-21 has continued to advance through testing. A demonstration flight exceeding 3,800 kilometers was completed by an MC-21-310 carrying a payload equivalent to 175 passengers in June, according to Yakovlev.
Superjet Faces a Different Challenge
The SSJ-100 is yet another critical component of the domestic fleet transition; however, its future is contingent upon a distinct challenge: enhancing the utility of aircraft that have already been delivered.
Aeroflot is contemplating the remotorization of its Superjet 100 fleet. The company has contended that government assistance would be necessary to remotorize aircraft manufactured prior to 2022. In the absence of such assistance, the fleet may gradually cease to operate.
This serves as an illustration of the fact that Aeroflot’s fleet strategy is not solely a matter of purchasing new Russian aircraft and retiring foreign ones. The airline is simultaneously endeavoring to establish a sustainable maintenance and supply ecosystem, introduce new Russian models, and extend the useful life of existing aircraft.
A Gradual Fleet Transformation
Ultimately, Aeroflot may be able to manage that transition by retaining serviceable Airbus and Boeing aircraft. By extending the lifespan of its current fleet, the airline is able to provide Russian manufacturers with the necessary time to establish the production rhythm necessary to supply the next generation of Aeroflot aircraft, rather than being compelled to replace hundreds of aircraft before a sufficient number of Russian-built replacements are available.
The true measure, therefore, will not be whether Aeroflot can order hundreds of Russian aircraft. The airline’s ability to gradually modify its fleet without compromising operational efficiency, reliability, or capacity will be determined by the consistency of their delivery from Russia’s aviation industry.