Assembly elections 2022 – What do opinion polls of Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh predict?

Opinion polls have picked up the pace with elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh. Different news outfits have collaborated with research firms specialising in electoral forecasting to predict the outcome in each state. 

Goa

Opinion polls conducted to gauge the mood of voters in Goa revealed that the BJP would emerge as the largest party, close to the 50 per cent majority mark. The Times Now opinion poll has predicted that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may get anywhere between 17 to 21 in the 40-member Goa assembly, while the pre-election survey by P-Marq, in association with Republic Bharat, put the number at 16 to 20 seats.

While Times Now survey said that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is likely to get 8 to 11 seats, P-Marq projected that the Arvind Kejriwal- led party will bag 4 to 8 seats. For the Indian National Congress (INC), P-Marq is pointing towards a kitty of 9 to 13 seats. At the same time, the Times Now polls say the party could win 4 to 6 seats. 

Times Now puts the projected voter percentage of the BJP at 29.5 per cent, AAP’s at 27.8 per cent, and INC’s at 18.56 per cent. P-Marq’s numbers say that the BJP will have 30.5 per cent of the voter share, AAP will have 17.4 per cent, and INC will have 22.2 per cent of the total votes.

Both surveys project incumbent chief minister Pramod Sawant as the most popular leader in the state. 

Manipur

In the north-eastern state of Manipur, where elections for the 60-member house will happen in two phases, the seat distribution estimates of different polls vary quite a bit.

According to the P-Marq survey, BJP is projected to stay ahead, even gaining a clear majority in the race, with a projected 31 to 37 seats out of 60 seats falling into their bag. INC is projected to be at the second spot with 13 to 19 seats. The National People’s Party (NPP) and the Naga People’s Front (NPF) are predicted to get 2 to 9 and 1 to 5 seats. The survey found that the state’s current Chief Minister, Biren Singh, is the most preferred face for the CM chair with 36.0 per cent approval. 

On the other hand, ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll has shown that BJP and Congress seem to be in a tight contest in Manipur, which can witness a hung assembly this time. The poll projected 23 to 27 seats for the BJP and 22 to 26 for INC. 

The poll has projected a voter share of 35.5 per cent for the BJP and 32.6 per cent for INC.

Punjab

All opinion polls project AAP as likely to emerge as the single-largest party, falling short of a clear majority. The Times Now survey has predicted that AAP could win 54 to 58 out of 117 seats, while CVoter and P-Marq put this number at 52 to 58 seats and 50 to 56 seats, respectively. In third place, the Times Now poll says that the INC is projected to win 41 to 47 seats, while CVoter and P-Marq have said it could win 37 to 43 seats and 42 to 48 seats, respectively. All the surveys have shown that the BJP will only be able to win 1 to 3 seats. 

The Shiromani Akali Dal is projected to win 13 to 17 seats by P-Marq, 11 to 15 seats by Times Now, and 17 to 23 seats by CVoter, is likely to emerge as the kingmaker in the state. P-Marq has found that the incumbent Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi is the top choice amongst voters for the CM chair in the state.

Uttarakhand

In Uttarakhand, the 70-member Assembly elections are likely influenced by upper-caste voters, who form a majority in the hill state. 

Zee’s opinion poll projected that INC would garner 35 while the BJP will come up as a close second with 33. Meanwhile, newcomer AAP is likely to gain one seat. 

On the other hand, P-Marq and Times Now polls predict the return of the BJP. Times Now said that the party would win 44 to 50 seats, while P-Marq put the number between 36 and 42. The same polls predicted that the INC would win 12 to 15 seats (Times Now) and 25 to 31 seats (P-Marq). AAP’s share is pegged at 0 to 2 seats by Times Now, while P-Marq puts it at 5 to 8 seats. 

Uttar Pradesh

In the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, whose Assembly has 403 members, the ruling BJP is likely to retain power, albeit with a substantial loss of seats.

According to the Times Now opinion poll, the BJP is projected to win 227 to 254 seats. On the other hand, the Samajwadi Party (SP) will bag 136 to 151 seats. The INC is set to win between 6 to 11 seats, while the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) will likely get 8 to 14 seats. 

BJP is also set to grab the highest voter share of 39.4 per cent, followed closely by SP with a 34.6 per cent share according to this poll. 

P-Marq’s survey shows BJP+ is likely to win 252 to 272 seats while SP+ is projected to bag 111 to 131 seats. Per their poll, BSP is set to reel in 8 to 16 seats, and the INC will get 3 to 9 seats. 

Sixty-one per cent of respondents to this survey indicated that the last-minute move of ministers and MLAs to SP would increase the Akhilesh Yadav-led party’s chances.

According to the poll conducted by India TV, BJP is likely to get 230 to 235 seats, while the SP-led alliance can bag around 160 to 165 seats. According to most of these polls, Yogi Adityanath seems to be the top choice of the people for the post of CM. 

Interestingly, most people in these five states have identified unemployment to be the key issue in these assembly elections.

Overall, according to the polls, the BJP can be the majority party in all states except Punjab, where AAP is set to be the majority party. The SP-led alliance in UP and the INC in Uttarakhand are set to perform quite well. According to some polls, INC also has a projected decent performance in Manipur and Goa. SOME POLLS SUGGEST THAT the AAP is also set to make a place for itself in the Goa elections.