India’s eastern neighbor Bangladesh, once seen as a success story in regional diplomacy, is now emerging as a node in an emerging anti-India alignment involving China and Pakistan. The growing signs of hostility—from increased Chinese military and economic footprints to Pakistan’s re-engagement at strategic levels—urgently necessitate a recalibration of India’s approach.
While military preparedness remains non-negotiable, India must exhaust its vast spectrum of diplomatic, economic, and strategic non-military tools. These measures must be clear, deliberate, and effective in signaling resolve and capability. India’s response must protect its national interests without triggering a full-blown confrontation—yet be sharp enough to disrupt any anti-India momentum building within Bangladesh.
India has always maintained a generous diplomatic and humanitarian approach toward Bangladesh, extending help in health, education, trade, and connectivity. However, recent developments suggest a visible erosion of goodwill. Chinese strategic investments, growing military interactions with Pakistan, and Dhaka’s reluctance to support Indian concerns reflect a changing posture that can no longer be overlooked.
A recalibration is not just necessary—it is overdue
India’s geopolitical vision has long been ensuring stability in its immediate neighborhood. The ‘Neighborhood First’ doctrine assumed that economic assistance, cultural ties, and security cooperation would generate goodwill. But goodwill without reciprocity has diminishing returns. The need of the hour is not just soft diplomacy but a shift to conditional engagement, where national security, territorial sovereignty, and strategic deterrence shape every bilateral decision. Bangladesh’s growing ties with China and Pakistan represent a systemic challenge to India’s long-term interests.
India’s Diplomacy—Guarding National Interests
India’s diplomatic framework is guided by realism—prioritizing national security and regional stability. Bangladesh’s shifting posture, visible in its warming relations with China and Pakistan and its tolerance for anti-India rhetoric and activities, is no longer a bilateral irritant—it is a strategic threat.
Diplomatic channels must now work on establishing new red lines. High-level visits should be paused or made conditional on concrete deliverables. India must also use multilateral platforms such as BIMSTEC and IORA to isolate Dhaka diplomatically, if necessary. At the same time, backchannel communication must continue to keep dialogue open and avoid inadvertent escalation.
India must now transition from passive diplomacy to active containment. This includes identifying choke points in Bangladesh’s economy that are directly linked to India—such as the textile sector’s dependence on Indian cotton—and converting them into negotiating tools.
Simultaneously, the Indian High Commission in Dhaka should intensify outreach to civil society groups, opposition parties, and moderate religious organizations to ensure that India-friendly constituencies are not sidelined.
Visa Denials: Restricting Privileged Access
India has long been generous with visa access for Bangladeshi citizens. However, this openness can no longer be unconditional.
Medical Visas
Thousands of Bangladeshis receive treatment in Indian hospitals annually. While humanitarian exceptions can continue, blanket access should be reconsidered, especially where no emergency is involved.
Education Visas
India hosts a large number of Bangladeshi students under scholarships. These must now be granted only after a security and ideological screening of institutions and candidates.
Diplomatic Demarche
India must formally object to all infrastructure projects involving China in Bangladesh, mainly those near Indian borders or critical chokepoints like the Bay of Bengal.
Visa policies have both symbolic and material impact. The metaphorical message of restricted access indicates disapproval without confrontation. The material impact comes from the loss of foreign exchange Bangladesh earns through medical tourism and education in India. Additional restrictions may include limiting high-level cultural exchanges, think-tank collaborations, and travel privileges for Bangladeshi officials and academics associated with anti-India activities.
Trade and Tariffs: Economic Pressure with Precision
Bangladesh’s economic dependency on India, particularly for raw materials and transit, presents strategic leverage.
Transit Denial
Goods moving from Bangladesh to Nepal and Bhutan or through Indian ports can be halted or slowed to create logistical friction and raise costs.
Raw Material Cut-Off
India should identify sensitive inputs like cotton, yarn, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals for phased export restrictions.
Tariff Reimposition
Review and suspend Bangladesh’s trade concessions under SAFTA where justified by national security exceptions.
India can also delay or deny the renewal of bilateral trade facilitation agreements that make it cheaper for Bangladeshi goods to enter Indian markets. Preferential Rules of Origin may be re-evaluated to check abuse through third-country imports. Additionally, India must start diversifying its sourcing of garments, jute, and leather products from other friendly economies like Vietnam or Sri Lanka, thereby reducing Bangladesh’s leverage in these sectors.
SAARC’s Role Amid Global Economic Shifts
Due to Pakistan’s obstructionism, the SAARC is nearly dysfunctional. India can now push for a ‘SAARC minus two’ policy—excluding Pakistan and uncooperative Bangladesh. This would reinforce the need for regional responsibility and push Dhaka to reassess its isolation.
India should also expand its engagement in BIMSTEC and IORA to offset Dhaka’s influence in South Asia-centric discussions.
In light of global supply chain disruptions and regional volatility, SAARC’s failure to operate as a cohesive bloc is increasingly evident. India should advocate for a new economic charter within SAARC, under which only countries aligned with democratic values and mutual security interests can benefit from regional funding, aid, and joint infrastructure development.
Border Management: Rules of Engagement for Border Security Force (BSF) and Assam Rifles (AR)
Bangladesh’s denial of border fencing and support for infiltrations demands stricter Rules of Engagement (RoE).
BSF
- Boost 24×7 border patrols using drones and motion sensors.
- Permit immediate response to obstruction of fence-building.
- Escalate force progressively from non-lethal to live fire if sovereignty is threatened.
AR
- Conduct targeted cordon-and-search operations.
- Use human intelligence networks and cooperate with state police forces.
- Establish forward operating bases in high-risk infiltration zones.
India must reclassify sensitive border areas as ‘high-threat zones’ and implement a no-compromise fencing policy. Border Hacks and soft crossings should be suspended in high-risk districts until infiltration and smuggling drop to measurable levels.
Identification and Deportation of Illegal Immigrants
The illegal Bangladeshi immigrant issue must be treated as a security problem, not just a demographic or political one.
Complete biometric registration drives in Northeast states.
Create dedicated fast-track courts for illegal immigration cases.
Strengthen coordination with Bangladesh for receiving deportees.
A key component of this initiative is to digitize and link citizenship databases across states. Repatriation diplomacy should be initiated with Dhaka using documented proof of nationality while maintaining pressure through other diplomatic channels. This will require legal reforms and political will at the Union and State levels.
Water as Leverage: Revisiting River Sharing
Water remains a powerful tool of leverage. India must reassess its river-sharing treaties, including the Teesta and Feni. However, this could strain India’s relations with Bangladesh, potentially leading to increased hostility and a further shift in Bangladesh’s alignment towards China and Pakistan.
- Freeze the Teesta deal until strategic alignment is restored.
- Invest in upstream water storage and management infrastructure.
- Publicly link future water deals with Bangladesh’s behavior on key security issues.
River data, especially flood and water discharge information, should be shared with Bangladesh only on a reciprocal basis. Internal river-linking projects should be prioritized to ensure strategic insulation from river-sharing politics.
Military Option: Reserved, Not Forgotten
- Military preparedness is not for conflict—it is for deterrence.
- Maintain a high alert posture in Eastern Command.
- Deploy air assets and missile systems strategically near the Siliguri Corridor.
- Conduct visible military exercises with neighbors like Bhutan and Myanmar.
India must keep its Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs) well-equipped for misadventure. Forward ammunition depots, airlift capacity, and surveillance systems must be expanded.
Policy Review and Recalibration of India-Bangladesh Agreements Key Agreements to Reconsider
- Land Boundary Agreement (2015): Review usage and misuse of transit points.
- Water-Sharing MoUs: Make compliance conditional.
- Trade and Economic MoUs: Add security-linked suspension clauses.
- Border Management: Amend BSF-BGB protocols.
- Educational & Cultural Exchanges: Ensure ideological neutrality
Trigger Points for Review
- Hosting of anti-India elements.
- Presence of PLA or Pakistani intelligence.
- Strategic collusion at international forums.
A multi-agency task force should conduct strategic audits of all bilateral MoUs every two years. Sunset clauses must be inserted into all new treaties. India should also establish a special envoy on Indo-Bangladesh border security and treaty oversight.
Conclusion
India is at a strategic inflexion point. What it does now will determine the balance of power in South Asia over the next decade. Complacency is not an option. Strategic ambiguity must be replaced by explicit signaling. India must combine diplomacy with deterrence, development with enforcement, and dialogue with conditionality.
The era of one-sided generosity is over. Reciprocity and responsibility must define the next phase of India-Bangladesh ties. Only then can India secure its eastern frontier and safeguard its national sovereignty from incremental threats.