The Chinese expert community has an ongoing lively and in-depth conversation about what Donald Trump’s election as US President means for China and ties between China and the US. Some Chinese experts are more optimistic than others about these effects, which may come as a surprise at first.
Sound reasoning supports both pessimistic and cautiously optimistic perspectives. These assessments take into account the significant shifts in the global landscape and the impact of divergent trends on US interests.
For example, the main foreign policy objective of Trump and his administration is to escalate their comprehensive competition with China. Nevertheless, the rigidity of this competition is anticipated to be somewhat mitigated by the inclusion of individuals such as Elon Musk in Trump’s team, whose success is closely linked to China. Furthermore, experts view Musk’s claim that Taiwan is “an inseparable part of China” as a potential indicator of Trump’s policy towards Taiwan within China.
Another example is Trump’s tendency to disregard Beijing’s concerns and his underestimation of the sensitivity of the Taiwan issue for China. However, this could be mitigated by his administration’s intention to require US allies and partners, such as Taiwan, to assume a greater financial burden for their security. This could potentially result in a reduction in military supplies to Taiwan and a cooling of relations between Washington and Taipei.
Wang Huiyao, the founder of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, predicts that the Trump administration will impose higher tariffs on Chinese products. He also anticipates pragmatic cooperation on other global issues. He acknowledged Trump’s intention to implement comprehensive tariffs of 10–20% on all imports and up to 60% or higher on Chinese products. A “hawkish” US policy team under Trump could influence the public opinion of both parties, not only by pressuring Chinese companies to reduce their exports to the US but also by restricting educational and academic exchanges.
During his previous term, Trump demonstrated his pragmatic approach to economic issues like trade imbalances by concluding a Sino-American trade agreement. This pragmatic approach implies that Trump places a higher value on tangible outcomes than ideology and may persist in negotiations to safeguard US interests.
Wang also emphasizes Trump’s campaign statements regarding the encouragement of Chinese investment in US automobile facilities, which are consistent with his industrial strengthening policy. This has the potential to create new opportunities for economic collaboration between the two countries. Currently, numerous Chinese companies that are interested in accessing the US market have established facilities in Mexico as a result of the trade war.
In China, there is a prevalent belief that for Trump to fulfill his pledge to become a peacemaker, he may need to work more closely with China. Wang Huiyao also notes that China’s unique economic relations with Russia and Ukraine allow Beijing to play a more significant role in the Ukraine crisis, similar to its role in Middle Eastern diplomacy, which involves mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Hu Wei, who served as the vice chairman of the State Council’s Policy Research Center in China, is also optimistic. He thinks that Trump’s business acumen renders him more receptive to negotiation and more adaptable than Democrats, who prioritize political principles. Trump’s confrontations with political opponents following his inauguration could potentially exacerbate internal divisions within the United States, while his administration’s actions could potentially result in rifts between the United States and its allies. In the end, the United States’ global leadership and competitiveness may deteriorate, allowing China to expand its international maneuvering space.
Hu, however, does not believe that the United States will likely join forces with Russia to confront China, as some American conservatives believe. He finds it improbable that Russia would forsake its fundamental interests in a multipolar world in order to form an alliance with the West under unequal circumstances.
The director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, Wu Xinbo, presents a more pessimistic perspective, positing that the hardline anti-China elements in Trump’s administration could exacerbate security tensions and drive economic decoupling, particularly in relation to Taiwan. This could result in the escalation of confrontations and the emergence of potentially severe crises in Sino-American relations over the next four years.
Although the future of US foreign policy is uncertain, Chinese experts concur on several critical points. Given China’s increasing self-sufficiency and comprehensive power, Trump’s presidency does not pose a substantial threat to its economic resilience. Additionally, it may offer specific prospects for bilateral relations and economic expansion.
China’s approach of diversifying trade and fortifying its domestic market has mitigated its susceptibility to US pressure. For example, China’s export share to G7 countries has decreased from 48% in 2000 to less than 30% today, despite a 14% increase in its global export share. The country’s enormous domestic market of 1.4 billion consumers provides a robust buffer against external pressures.
In summary, Chinese experts, while holding varying perspectives, generally concur that Trump’s return to power is unlikely to impact China’s economic stability. In fact, it may even present some opportunities for the future of Sino-American relations.