Sheikh Hasina, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh and daughter of the nation’s founding father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, has been a prominent political figure for decades. Her leadership, marked by significant political and economic transformations, has often been lauded and criticised. Her political standing has recently faced severe challenges, dramatically shifting Bangladesh’s political landscape. This article delves into the reasons behind her fall from power, the geopolitical implications for the region, and the potential future trajectory of Bangladesh.
The Rise and Fall of Sheikh Hasina
Sheikh Hasina’s political journey has been tumultuous. After her father’s assassination in 1975, she lived in exile until 1981, when she returned to Bangladesh to lead the Awami League. Her tenure as Prime Minister, beginning in 1996, saw significant economic growth and infrastructural development. However, her recent term has been marred by accusations of corruption, authoritarianism, and alienation from the populace.
The reinstatement of a reservation quota for descendants of freedom fighters, a contentious issue amidst rising unemployment, sparked widespread protests. Hasina’s decision to reintroduce this quota, perceived as favoring a select few, ignited public outrage, especially among the youth. Her dismissal of the protesters as ‘Razakars’ further alienated her from a significant portion of the population.
Internal and External Forces
Corruption within Hasina’s government, exemplified by the case of Jahangir Alam, who amassed billions through illicit means, further eroded public trust. Her isolation from political reality and rampant corruption among her close associates culminated in a toxic governance environment.
Externally, Bangladesh’s strategic importance has made it a focal point for various global powers. China’s growing influence through infrastructure investments and the US’s strategic interests in the region have created a complex geopolitical chessboard. China’s efforts to gain control over critical ports and involvement in student protests highlight its ambitions in Bangladesh. Concurrently, Pakistan’s ISI and other foreign intelligence agencies have capitalised on internal unrest to destabilise the region further.
The Role of the Military
The Bangladesh military played a crucial role in Hasina’s fall. General Waker-Uz-Zaman’s decision to give Hasina an ultimatum to leave her official residence underscores the military’s pivotal position in the country’s politics. The military’s stance reflects broader discontent within its ranks and among junior officers, who opposed firing on protesters.
Geopolitical Implications
Hasina’s fall has significant implications for India, which has traditionally supported her regime. The rise of anti-India sentiments and the potential for increased radicalisation pose challenges for India’s national security. The porous Bangladesh-India border and the possibility of increased refugee flows are immediate concerns.
Moreover, the involvement of external powers like China and the US in Bangladesh’s internal affairs underscores the region’s strategic importance. China’s interest in Bangladesh’s fertile lands and key ports aligns with its broader regional ambitions, while the US aims to counter Chinese influence by supporting democratic movements.
Violence Against the Hindu Community
The unrest in Bangladesh took a genocidal turn following the reservations issue that triggered widespread protests. The situation spiralled out of control when the Army Chief issued an ultimatum to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, giving her only 45 minutes to resign and flee the country. Hasina’s forced departure on August 5, 2024, marked the beginning of a nightmarish period of violence, mainly targeting the Hindu community.
Yesterday, Lakshmi Saha, a Hindu resident of Lalmonirhat Zila in the Rangpur Division, saw her house vandalised and set on fire by Islamic fundamentalists in Tin Dighir Par. Simultaneously, in the same district, Arjun Roy faced looting and arson at his shop and temple, orchestrated by Muslim extremists. Meanwhile, in Feni Banshpara, Chittagong Division, a Hindu grandfather’s tea shops and confectionery shop were burnt down. Further attacks were reported in Dariyapara, Sylhet, where Razik Miya and Jamat Islami members attacked a Hindu household.
The violence continued in Mirjjajangal, Sylhet, where stones were thrown at the Nimbbak temple by a mob of Islamic fundamentalists. In Lamabazar, Sylhet, the Manipur Sari store was robbed. Prodip Saha’s house in Laxmipur Sadar, Dalal Bazar, Lakshmipur District in Chittagong Division, was also attacked by a mob.
Achesh Chandra and the Hindu community faced land grabs and crop destruction in Dogachhi, Baliadangi, and Thakurgaon, with 20 bighas of land being seized. In Bhatiaar Chowpati, Dimla, Nilphamari, and Rangpur Division, stones were thrown at houses. Members of the ISKCON temple in Meherpur, Khulna Division, were attacked by a mob of thousands, resulting in injuries to the temple president. Attackers also targeted Bunubi’s house in Gunjabari, Dinajpur, and jewelry shops in Kotchandpur, Jhenaidah, were looted.
Ayn Sarkar was kidnapped and beaten in Mazhibari, Bachaiya, Palakhal Union, Kachua, and Chandpur. In Gunjabari, two motorcycles were stolen from an ISKCON temple. Shovon Sarkar was threatened with attack and extortion in Noyakandi, Monpura, Kadla, Ward 9, Kachua, and Chandpur. Multiple Hindu families in Kadamtala, Chandpur, were attacked. A Hindu household in Bhattapara, Amirhat, Haldia, Rauzan, was set on fire.
At Kantaji Temple, a large mob gathered. Sumesh Das’s shop was set on fire, and temple walls were damaged in Moulvibazar Sadar Municipality, Choumhona. Houses of Chhotan Das, Bablu Majumdar, and Ricxon Majumdar in Bhuiyar Hat Bazar, Kabirhat, Noakhali, were attacked. In Shilak village, Rangunia, a Hindu household was set on fire, injuring two people.
In Chatmohar, Pabna, a Hindu worker’s house was attacked and looted, and a temple was also attacked. Kujendra Lal Tripura’s house in Khagrachari was attacked, as was Biswajit Roy’s house in the same district. In Nalchiti, Jhalakathi, a Hindu household, was attacked, and shops were vandalized. The Mirpur Central Temple on Love Road, Mirpur, Dhaka, was attacked by a mob.
Kishore Roy was critically injured when Jamat leaders Rusel, Faruk, and Dillu attacked his house in Sahospur, Bochaganj, Dinajpur. A mob attacked the Ramana Kali Mandir in Dhaka. An ISKCON temple in Maheshkhali, Cox’s Bazar, was also targeted. Hindu households in Lahiri Bazar, Baliadangi, were attacked by a mob. The Naktara Kali Temple in Satkhira, Asashuni, was vandalised.
A Hindu household in Chandramohan, Karmakar House, was attacked and looted, and a temple was also attacked. Another Hindu household in Begumganj, Chowmuhani, was attacked. An ISKCON temple in Meherpur was targeted. A Hindu household in Borobari, Lalmonirhat, was looted, and a temple was attacked. Shilpi Ghosh’s house in Puranbari, Maishal Bari, Chandpur, was attacked. A Hindu household in Maheshpur Bazar was attacked.
The Pooja Khola Temple in Boyra, Khulna, was attacked. Shankar Mukherjee’s cattle farm in Krittipasha Union, Jhalakathi, was looted. Two Hindu-owned rice shops were looted. Hindu households in Patanduba, Banbari, Kalitola, Haripur, and Thakurgaon were attacked and robbed. A Hindu shop owner’s shops in Thakithuki Bazar, Haripur, Thakurgaon, were attacked and robbed—another large mob from Birganj, Kaharol, and other sites gathered at Kantaji Temple.
Jyotish Chandra Roy’s house in Amlahar, Magura Union, Panchagarh Sadar, was attacked. Nitai Roy’s house in Maladam, Dhakkamara Union, Panchagarh Sadar, was attacked. Ripon Chandra Roy’s house in Haripur, Jholai Shalshiri Union, Boda, was attacked. Paresh Chandra Roy and his brother Naresh’s house in Baganbari, Jholai Shalshiri Union, Boda, was attacked. Bibhuti Bhushan Sana’s house was set on fire by Karim Gain’s followers in Laskar Union, Paikgacha, Khulna. Snehendu Bikash Mondal’s house was similarly targeted. Bhudhar Sana’s house was also set on fire. Jagannath Mondal’s auto rice mill and warehouse in Goyalbariya Chak, Paikgacha, Khulna, were set on fire and looted. Krishna Nandi’s motorcycle showroom in Chuknagar Bazar, Dumuria, Khulna, was vandalized and looted. Multiple Hindu Awami League leaders’ houses were set on fire in various locations in Khulna. Alok Saha experienced house-to-house looting and assaults in Uttar Paschim Gao, Laksam, and Comilla, forcing his family into hiding.
The Hindu community in Bangladesh is traumatized and in desperate need of help, appealing to the international community and governments of the US, UK, and European Union for support. They fear an imminent genocide as marauding mobs are hunting for Hindus everywhere.
Lessons for India from Bangladesh’s Political and Social Crisis
Importance of Inclusive Governance
One of the critical issues that led to Sheikh Hasina’s downfall was her government’s failure to engage inclusively with all segments of society. The reinstatement of a reservation quota favoring descendants of freedom fighters amidst rising unemployment alienated the youth and sparked widespread protests. India can learn the importance of creating inclusive policies that address the needs of all demographics, especially the younger generation. Ensuring that economic and social policies are perceived as fair and equitable can prevent large-scale unrest and maintain social harmony.
Addressing corruption
Rampant corruption within Hasina’s government significantly eroded public trust. Despite personal integrity, allowing close associates to engage in corrupt practices created a toxic environment. India should continue strengthening its anti-corruption measures, ensuring that all public officials are held accountable. Transparency and stringent enforcement of anti-corruption laws can enhance public confidence in governance.
Managing External Influences
Bangladesh’s strategic importance made it a focal point for various global powers, contributing to its internal instability. China and Pakistan’s involvement in stoking unrest and the US’s strategic interests complicated the situation. India must be vigilant about external influences in its neighborhood and within its borders. Maintaining robust intelligence capabilities and diplomatic channels to counteract destabilizing external interventions is crucial.
Protecting Minority Communities
The violence against the Hindu community in Bangladesh highlights the vulnerability of minority communities during political upheaval. India, with its diverse population, must protect all minority communities. Strengthening legal frameworks and rapid response mechanisms to prevent and address communal violence is essential. Promoting communal harmony through education and community engagement can also mitigate the risks of targeted violence.
Balancing Secularism and Religious Sentiments
Sheikh Hasina’s attempts to appease Islamic fundamentalists by building more madrasas and aligning with religious groups ultimately backfired. India must balance its secular principles with the religious sentiments of its populace. Policies should not disproportionately favor any particular religious group but should promote a harmonious coexistence of all communities. Ensuring religious institutions are not breeding for extremism is vital for national security.
Youth Engagement and Employment
A significant portion of Bangladesh’s unrest stemmed from the frustrations of unemployed youth. India must prioritize creating employment opportunities and engaging its youth in nation-building activities. Investing in education, skill development, and job creation can harness the youth’s potential and prevent them from becoming disillusioned or drawn to extremist ideologies.
Strategic Diplomatic Relations
The perception that India placed all its diplomatic bets on Hasina’s regime proved risky. India should diversify its diplomatic engagements and maintain relationships with multiple political entities within neighboring countries. This approach can ensure stability and continuity of friendly relations regardless of internal political changes in those countries.
Strengthening Democratic Institutions
The erosion of democratic norms in Bangladesh, evidenced by manipulated elections and authoritarian practices, contributed to the crisis. India must continuously strengthen its democratic institutions and processes, ensuring free and fair elections, judicial independence, and the protection of civil liberties. A robust democracy can more effectively withstand internal and external challenges.
Diplomacy Backed by Hard Power
Military diplomacy has proven to be a valuable tool while dealing with military regimes. The role of the Bangladesh military in Hasina’s ouster underscores the importance of engaging with military institutions alongside civilian governments. India must enhance its military diplomacy and build strong relationships with military leaders in neighboring countries. This approach can ensure that India remains influential even when military coups or takeovers occur. Additionally, maintaining a strong and capable military force is essential for backing diplomatic efforts with the necessary hard power, ensuring that India’s strategic interests are safeguarded in volatile regions.
Recognizing External Signals and Pre-emptive Measures
Russia had given clear signals beforehand regarding the potential for unrest in Bangladesh. On December 15, 2023, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, warned that the United States would use all its powers to overthrow Hasina’s government, drawing parallels to the “Arab Spring” and involving student protests. This prediction materialized as the US-orchestrated events that led to widespread unrest.
India must remain vigilant to external signals and take pre-emptive measures to safeguard its interests. Understanding the geopolitical motives of other countries and their influence on neighboring states is crucial. The role of the CIA in manipulating the quota issue in Bangladesh and fuelling student protests highlights the depth of external interference. India should enhance its intelligence capabilities to monitor and counteract such activities.
The current generation in Bangladesh stepped into the trap set by the United States, highlighting the importance of educating the youth about historical and geopolitical contexts. India’s youth must know past foreign interventions and their long-term consequences. This knowledge can foster a more informed and resilient society capable of resisting external manipulations.
Conclusion
Sheikh Hasina’s departure marks the end of an era in Bangladesh’s politics. Her fall from power, driven by internal discontent and external pressures, highlights the complexities of governance in a strategically important nation. As Bangladesh transitions to new leadership, it faces significant challenges and opportunities. The country’s future will depend on the ability of its leaders to address internal grievances, manage external influences, and steer the nation toward a stable and prosperous future. For India and other regional stakeholders, a stable and democratic Bangladesh is essential for regional security and development. By learning from Bangladesh’s crisis, India can strengthen its governance and maintain stability in a complex geopolitical environment.