New projections on the potential demand for the LMS-901 Baikal light multi-purpose aircraft in Russia’s civil aviation industry were revealed in September 2026. The numbers are very modest. The potential requirement is put at in excess of 100 aircraft over the next seven to eight years. This is small compared to the massive programs being undertaken in mainline and regional aviation. But for the Russian light aviation category, such a market could be important.
At the same time, the question of upgrading the rest of the Antonov An-2 aircraft again became relevant. This is mostly about programs for the large-scale modernization of Soviet aircraft, including the installation of new engines and avionics. The fundamental challenge is whether Russia can simultaneously build a viable market for the new LMS-901 and support the upgrade of surviving An-2 aircraft.
Is More Than 100 Aircraft a Large or Small Market?
The Comprehensive Program for the Development of the Aviation Industry of Russia plans to manufacture about 138 LMS-901 aircraft through 2035. Separately, Dmitry Yadrov, chairman of Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency, said in September 2026 the country would need more than 100 such aircraft by 2035.
So the government projections are generally in the same area. But these numbers should be interpreted as projections of possible demand rather than firm commercial orders.
That’s a huge difference for a manufacturer. A firm order book is one thing. An estimate of possible demand from regional airlines, local carriers, and other operators is another thing. This problem has always been the bane of light Russian aviation. An aircraft may be economically essential to a region, yet the airline itself may lack the financial wherewithal to buy and operate it.
Therefore, Baikal’s future will depend on both its technical characteristics and state-backed methods.
The An-2 Is Still Part of the Story
The LMS-901 is not just to be considered a direct replacement for the remaining An-2 in Russia. Developers and officials of the aviation industry have often cited discrepancies between the two aircraft.
The An-2 was a product of its time and could undertake a variety of missions, even from unprepared airstrips. Today, however, much of the remaining fleet is physically and technologically obsolete. Many of the planes need extensive repairs while others are nearing the end of their useful lifetimes.
At the same time, Russia has a program to update the An-2 to the TVS-2MS version. In ten years only about 25 of these types of aircraft have been built. One is the price of a full modernization. Another thing is the usage of a foreign engine.
The scenario could improve with plans for a version with a Russian powerplant, but this would mean a new certification program and several more years of effort. Therefore, one should not expect a fast, large-scale renewal of the An-2 fleet.
Government Support Could Change the Project’s Economics
This raises an important question: is there genuine market demand for the Baikal without government support?
Russia’s aviation sector experience illustrates that government programs can have a substantial impact on the economics of manufacturing in some parts. Potential demand can be translated into real deliveries if airlines are granted some reimbursement for aircraft acquisitions, subsidized leasing, or financing for regional air services.
In theory, something similar may work for the LMS-901. At the same time, the Baikal has one key advantage over a heavily modified An-2: it is an entirely new aircraft. Its development, in turn, promotes the development of Russian aircraft manufacture, domestic component production, and the country’s engine industry.
That means the economic impact of the project could extend far beyond the sale of a hundred airplanes.
Production Could Reach 10–15 Aircraft a Year
If testing and certification proceed on schedule, serial production of the LMS-901 is planned to start when the main testing program is concluded, currently in 2027.
It seems technically possible to manufacture more than 100 aircraft in seven to eight years, with a manufacturing rate of about 10–15 aircraft per year. But it is only half of the manufacturing capacity story.
For a major aircraft manufacturer, such a volume is relatively small. For a light aviation program, however, it already represents a significant production run. The manufacturer will have to build a solid supply chain, maintenance infrastructure, spare-parts availability, pilot training, and technical support.
And just building the plane itself is part of the job. Equally vital to the program are the VK-800 engine and AV-901 propeller.
The Main Milestone Remains Certification
And that is why the events of September 2026 are so important. The main center for work on the project, the Ural Works of Civil Aviation, had a certification headquarters meeting led by Dmitry Yadrov, head of Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency.
The meeting discussed the certification status of the LMS-901 Baikal, VK-800 engine, and AV-901 propeller. The meeting also touched on issues relating to the mock-up commission for the certification of the LMS-192 Osvey.
At the same time, the aircraft must have the qualities necessary for effective operation. Yadrov said he expects UZGA to implement the project as soon as possible.
This means that the project has evolved from the purely developmental phase into a period in which the certification schedules will directly decide the start of serial production.
What’s happening with the plane now?
Russian Industry and Trade Minister Anton Alikhanov said the certification of the VK-800 engine and the AV-901 propeller should be completed by the end of the year, by the end of summer 2026. The Baikal airframe also needed to be prepared for static tests at the Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute (TsAGI).
Meanwhile, UZGA announced that the prototype Baikal aircraft was being prepared for static tests. Such tests are used to assess the structural response to calculated ground loads and represent a crucial stage in establishing the structural strength of the aircraft.
At the same time, work is ongoing to prepare resources for testing. The required protocol has been signed, and ground tests based on frequency have been completed. Flight testing has continued as scheduled since the start of 2026, the corporation said.
So the project is proceeding step by step toward its most significant phase: the transition from a prototype aircraft to a certified production aircraft.