Fresh images of a newly assembled Russian Il-78M-90A aerial refueling aircraft has reignited speculation about a potential export deal with China. In late October 2026, photographs of the aircraft began to circulate on Russian Telegram channels and aviation blogs, accompanied by claims that Beijing could receive 20 new tankers in 2027–2028.
The proposed delivery schedule raises major questions, and the reported contract has not been independently verified. At the Aviastar facility in Ulyanovsk, Russia continues to increase production of the Il-76MD-90A military transport aircraft. Conversely, the Il-78M-90A tanker program has not yet demonstrated the sustained serial deliveries that are anticipated from a mature production line.
The bigger story, therefore, is not simply whether China will buy another batch of Russian tankers. The question is whether a potential export order could help Russia in overcoming a long-standing production bottleneck, accelerating the introduction of a new generation of aerial refueling aircraft, and bolstering its position in the international military aviation market.
Aviastar faces a production challenge
The Il-78M-90A is a highly upgraded aircraft in comparison to the Soviet-era Il-76 transports manufactured in Tashkent, as it is based on the modernized Il-76MD-90A.
In the modern transport configuration, it is reported that over 70% of the aircraft’s systems and components have been replaced or modernized. Its capabilities have been improved by the addition of upgraded engines and avionics, and its maximum payload has been raised from 40 tons to 60 tons.
However, building the aircraft in Ulyanovsk has required Russia to reconstruct production capabilities that were once distributed across the Soviet aviation industry. Aviastar, in contrast to the vast manufacturing operation that was established in Tashkent, was required to expand its capacity, develop new production processes, and rebuild supply chains in an industrial environment that had difficulty producing large aircraft in significant quantities.
As a result, production was limited during the initial stages. In 2016 and 2017, no aircraft were delivered, and the annual output was initially limited to one or two aircraft.
Subsequently, production increased. In 2019, Russia delivered three Il-76MD-90A aircraft in serial, followed by three more in 2020 and two in 2021, during the construction of a new assembly line. Deliveries increased to five in 2022, six in 2023, six in 2024, and seven in 2025, as indicated by the figures in the the Russian media.
The targets that have been specified are considerably more ambitious. The projected output for 2026 is eight to ten aircraft, with a goal of 12 aircraft annually in 2027. Production is anticipated to increase to 18 and ultimately 24 aircraft annually in the future.
These figures are crucial because the current production capacity is already allocated to meet the military needs of Russia. In order to prevent domestic deliveries from being delayed, any substantial export program would necessitate the implementation of more reliable component supplies, additional capacity, and meticulous scheduling.
The tanker programme remains the critical unknown
The Il-78M-90A is a major modernization of Russia’s aerial refueling capability. It is intended to serve as a modern alternative to the aging Il-78 and Il-78M tankers that were inherited from the Soviet era, and it is powered by PS-90A-76 engines and outfitted with modern avionics.
The prototype was introduced at Aviastar on November 29, 2017, and it conducted its inaugural flight on January 25, 2018. The Russian Defense Ministry executed a contract on December 18, 2020, for the procurement of ten production aircraft. The deliveries were initially scheduled to commence in 2022.
Nevertheless, the source material does not provide any evidence that these aircraft have been operationally deployed or that regular serial deliveries have commenced by October 2026.
Images circulating this year have added to the uncertainty. A tanker was reportedly seen emerging from the factory for testing in August, followed by photographs of a painted aircraft in October. The possibility that the latter is intended for export has garnered attention; however, photographs alone are insufficient to verify the customer’s identity or verify a signed contract.
This distinction is indispensable. Evidence of industrial activity, rather than proof of an export agreement or a delivery schedule, is provided by the presence of an aircraft on a production floor.
An export order could change Aviastar’s production trajectory
The potential attraction for Russia is straightforward: a confirmed export contract could help in maintaining higher production rates at Ulyanovsk.
Aviastar’s expected growth from 12 aircraft annually to 18 and ultimately 24 aircraft annually would necessitate a consistent supply chain, investment, and dependable demand. Export orders could contribute to the expansion, provided that the factory is capable of satisfying additional demands without compromising deliveries to the Russian Aerospace Forces.
The production of tankers could present a particularly valuable opportunity, as it would extend the international market of the aircraft and build upon the Il-76MD-90A platform. However, the tanker variant necessitates its own production planning, specialized equipment, and acceptance procedures. It is impossible to assume that the immediate implications of increased transport aircraft capacity will be reflected in the delivery of tankers.
The reported Chinese order could therefore become an important test of Russia’s ability to scale up complex military aircraft manufacturing. However, the proposed delivery window of 2027–2028 appears to be ambitious, particularly in light of the lack of publicly documented progress of the serial tanker program.