Russia’s Rassvet-3 low-Earth-orbit satellite constellation experienced major difficulties after all 16 spacecraft launched in the program’s second batch failed to reach the altitude achieved by the first group of satellites. The spacecraft were launched on July 19, 2026, but recent orbital tracking indicates that none had climbed above roughly 360 kilometers by the end of August.
The development is particularly significant because the first set of Rassvet-3 satellites eventually established themselves at much higher altitudes, with most operating around 510 to 540 kilometers. The second batch, by contrast, remains much lower, leaving the spacecraft exposed to considerably stronger atmospheric drag and raising questions about their ability to reach their intended operational orbits.
The situation is being closely monitored because Rassvet-3 is a key component of the satellite communications ambitions of Russian company Bureau 1440. The company is attempting to build a large low-Earth-orbit broadband network capable of providing high-speed communications services across Russia and potentially competing with established Western satellite-internet systems.
A stark contrast with the first launch
The difference between the two batches is striking. Sixteen satellites were launched in the first Rassvet-3 deployment in March. By early August, orbital data indicated that approximately 12 of those spacecraft were operating at roughly 518–541 kilometers. Three others were considerably lower, at approximately 370–414 kilometers, while one spacecraft had already reentered the atmosphere.
The second batch was expected to add another 16 spacecraft to the constellation and accelerate the program’s expansion. Instead, the satellites have encountered difficulties during the process of raising their orbits.
Recent orbital analysis indicates that some of the second-batch spacecraft attempted orbit-raising maneuvers but subsequently stopped climbing. Others appear to have made little or no significant progress toward the higher operating altitude. The risk of premature atmospheric reentry increased because at least two satellites fell below 300 kilometers.
The second deployment is particularly concerning due to the fact that none of the 16 spacecraft had exceeded an estimated 360 kilometers by the end of August.
Why low altitude is a serious problem
Satellites intended to be part of a broadband constellation face major difficulties when they operate at such a low altitude. The upper atmosphere is concentrated enough to generate measurable aerodynamic drag, even at altitudes of several hundred kilometers above Earth.
That drag becomes much stronger as a satellite descends. A spacecraft at around 300 kilometers therefore loses altitude much more rapidly than one operating around 500 kilometers unless its propulsion system continuously provides enough thrust to compensate.
This may result in a challenging cycle for the Rassvet-3 satellites that are impacted. If their propulsion systems cannot raise them to a higher orbit, atmospheric drag will continue to remove orbital energy. The atmospheric density grows even more as the satellites descend, which accelerates orbital decay.
The ultimate consequence could be premature reentry and the loss of spacecraft before they can make a meaningful contribution to the constellation.
The propulsion question
The precise cause of the second-batch problems has not been publicly established. It would be premature to identify a specific technical failure without confirmation from Bureau 1440 or another authoritative source, despite the possibility that the observed orbital behavior is consistent with difficulties involving the satellites’ propulsion or orbit-raising systems.
Attitude control issues could also potentially disrupt maneuvers, as a spacecraft must maintain the correct orientation for its thrusters to execute effective orbit-raising fires. Software or flight-control issues are another potential explanation; however, public orbital data alone cannot ascertain the existence of such a problem.
The altitude compromise
Rassvet-3’s orbital evolution is also important because Bureau 1440’s plans have involved a substantial shift in its approach to operating altitude.
Bureau 1440’s plans have necessitated a substantial change in the way it views operating altitude, which is why Rassvet-3’s orbital evolution is also significant.
Earlier concepts for the constellation envisaged satellites operating at considerably higher altitudes, reportedly around 800 kilometers. Nevertheless, the first spacecraft were ultimately positioned at significantly lower altitudes, approximately 510 kilometers.
The lower orbit offers important advantages for broadband communications. A satellite closer to Earth can reduce signal propagation time, improving latency for users. Additionally, it can improve the system’s orbital architecture to be more similar to that of other modern broadband satellite networks.
However, the trade-off is a shortened orbital lifetime and increased atmospheric drag, particularly when spacecraft descend into the lower reaches of low Earth orbit.
A setback, not yet a program failure
The current situation should therefore be viewed as a serious setback rather than proof that Rassvet-3 itself has failed.
The reliability of each launch batch is essential for a constellation that ultimately necessitates hundreds or potentially thousands of spacecraft. The number of launches necessary to accomplish the desired coverage would be increased, and the costs of the program could be substantially increased if satellites are lost before they reach their operational altitude.
Therefore, the Bureau 1440 is subjected to a significant challenge with the second Rassvet-3 deployment. The setback may be resolved as a technical episode if the company is able to recover a significant number of the spacecraft and determine the root cause of the issue. However, the July launch could become a much more consequential setback to Russia’s ambitions for an independent low-Earth-orbit broadband constellation if more satellites continue to descend toward reentry.